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Senior Advisor

2nd 3 gapper

oughta do it.

The truly ominous technical picture would be if it later extends into a 5th wave down vs. the ABC zigzag corrective look.

Up until the last couple days I'd say it was just some of the froth coming off. Now we're getting into some more serious territory. 

25K ish was probably something like "fair value" for the economy that was. I have no idea what fair value will be for the economy that shall be. Whatever it is, the market will go significantly under it before stabilizing.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 2nd 3 gapper

Assumptive Wave C is a bit longer than A. B retraced less than 50% of A before heading back south in C.

As far as whether this is a 3 or 5 wave sequence, it probably needs to get up and going out of here. 4th waves often don't produce a big retracement but often burn some time- triangles and other complex corrections are common.

If it just fills the last gap and dawdles around for a while it is not going to look good.

Small hint but since 3s are never the shortest in 5 wave sequences, the length of C or 3 is consistent with 5 waves.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: In 2008, the bottom was ...

In 2008, the bottom was 6700, down from 14,000, or a little over half way down and the implications weren't anywhere nearly as this.

  Halfway down from 29,000 is 15,000.  That's as good as bottom as any at this time.

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Senior Advisor

Re: In 2008, the bottom was ...

Yeah, although I'll probably overthink it.

But what I said about the half off sale a couple weeks ago- a lot better than riding it down even if it will be terrifying if and when the time comes.

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Senior Advisor

Re: In 2008, the bottom was ...

The overthinking part comes from the fact that in the tech view a 5 down doesn't put an end to it.

I need to balance that with the fact that the end of these things don't come with a market solution- they come when there's effective policy intervention.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 21,200, Another day and trump will be back where he started three years ago.

21,200, another day and trump will be back where he started three years ago.

  Oh well, easy come, easy go.

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Senior Advisor

Re: 21,200, Another day and trump will be back where he started three years ago.

Or, an extra $1.5T in debt and nothing to show for it.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: 21,200, Another day and trump will be back where he started three years ago.

Splitting technical hairs here but, as noted, the first gap didn't exactly fit the critieria.

Today's makes the 2nd look like the breakaway gap.

Thing ought to be done for a while.

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