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Senior Advisor

$3 corn.....that will put a dent in things......

"I think there's a real, real chance that there's a three (as the) first number on the wall at the elevator come October," Ohio State University economist Matt Roberts told an outlook session last month.

 

article did not devulge details as to why?????

 

I will concede that a lot will happen between now and fall and one of those things could cause a 3..........that said it will not be because supply via massive NA acres and production caused it...........it will have to come from the demand side, via intervention or some crazy macros.......... We might get 94M acres, but we will get 72M soya acres.......which means SA has to grow more soya and less corn.......Hmmmmm, which means we have to grow more corn.........

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8 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things......

$3 corn just in time for the election.  Sounds pretty exciting to me.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things......

Didnt you know, we are going to raise another record crop this year??? Wait that was going to happen last year. No, it was going to happen the year before.  Gosh now I dont know. I would say $4 would be more realistic. One guy says were going up, the othe says we have no place to go but to $3. I guess we'll find out in 9-10 months

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Senior Contributor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things......

 Why don,t you   go back to a normal rotation instead of this corn on corn bussiness,and see what happens.Or do you just like getting pushed around by traders,USDA. emotional fundemental twisting.bending,and hair A bunch of &%#@!?* crap.

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Honored Advisor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things......

Thanks for the reminder Jim,

I was just reviewing the 2011 January usda report---went against expectations and found more production

Add in the election year------------

It won't supprise me.

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Jr, It isn't gonna help u much but the corn price is not necessarily going up when the pipe starts suckin air.  That's why I been wanting to talk about  decoupling of price .  Supply/demand act as expected when there is "supply" and "demand".  Without either unexpected things happen.

 

and 

Years ago(the 80's) our farm was raising feed grains and hogs.  corn was $1.25 and the hogs were survival.  I'm the accountant.  My partner(dad) kept asking me which were making money the corn or the hogs.  I told him it depends on what you want for our corn.

He kept asking and in reality the answer was always the same.  In later years we faced labor problems and a decision had to be made.  Suddenly I understood his question.  We were grain farmers with a hog sideling.  The grain stayed.

You are a dairy man who happens to raise corn it sounds like, and a person does what he loves to do.  Sometimes thats about all we have to feel good about.

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questions------I know nothing about milk pricing-----shouldn't this senerio be driving milk up also at some point? does demand drive it? Are we in a surplus position?  Why is it not going up with meat?  Are the mega dairy's hurting??

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Veteran Contributor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things......

Yeah...I was there (Jewell Ohio) and heard it firsthand. Scared the Bejesus out of me on the way home just thinking of it. Matt is very smart and I have high respect but.......

 

Assumptions were as follows. VEETC expiration leads to blend wall cap and deminished ethanol exports. OK. Then e production goes to RFS levels. I have long ago expected and planned on this. Then..corn exports drop from 2010-11 levels. I can counter that projection. Then...we plant 94 mil. @ 161.3 for a 13.95 total in 2012. Matt made a big isssue that he wasn't even using the trendline yield but something much less. I wanted to raise my hand at that point to remind him he was projecting the 2nd largest number of all time but I digress. He went on to paint a use of around 13.2 for a ending stock number of 1.5B. If he used trendline (165) and massaged some usage numbers he came up with the $3.90ish scenerio.

 

Yes it can happen. My son wanted to contract all the $5.40 2012 corn we could that night. I had to remind him that was a worst case scenerio. But that's what people heard.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things...... Or ??????????

Check out these three web sites, and double that 3 .....

 

 

http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2...


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Travel/Weather/Snow/Cover.aspx

 

 

 

I don't care what numbers you want to plug into your formulas, look outside guys !!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Moisture levels are so depleted, if the crop does comes up, and bumps up to any stress, it will wilt away.

 

There are farmers tiling in MN now, because there is no moisture in the ground to make frost, just powder.

 

Still want to talk 3's ?

 

 

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Contributor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things...... Or ??????????

cornhead,

 

You've got the drought monitor there, look up in the archives for January 6 and 13, 2004.  Alot more dry area in the US in January 2004, especially in the Plains, Dakotas', Minnesota, and Iowa and ended having a very nice corn year that year for a lot of people.  It's way to early to talk about soil moisture for the crop.  Also look up snow cover for the first week of January 2004, sure wasn't a whole lot of snow on the ground either, just a hair more than today.

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/archive.html

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Honored Advisor

Re: $3 corn.....that will put a dent in things...... Or ??????????

Plant in the dust, the bins will bust. Plant in the mud, the crop's a dud.

 

Not sure how old that saying is but is more than 60 years old.

 

We are not dry here in south central Iowa. Have had four years in a row of sub par crops down here. Been planting in mostly too wet of conditions.

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