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Veteran Advisor

44-21-40

How about a figure like that ?

 

The above is the cost of calls.....at the money soybeans NC, Corn NC and KC Wht in March......

 

this could be a very good looking girl........and could prove to be a wealthy girl.

 

I think we are all getting close to agreement, that the upcoming crop is not going to be a huge crop......which traders still think it

will be.........either because they don't know...which I would guess that these fellows who bet every day with the amount of money

they do, are not totally in the dark (but I could be wrong)....it's rather they are milking the markets for all they can.....get the farmers

to unload (which really anymore I don't believe makes any difference, we are just trading paper anymore, and it doesn't matter

who has the real commodity in hand)

I think there is similar to setting atop a rocket.........you know what's coming......but it's the waiting....and the worry that things

might go wrong and everything blow up in your face (or in the case of the rocket, a little bit lower).

 

so, we are looking at a situation that many of us will need to "make money somewhere".....and the market itself may be it........

but when do we pull the trigger, and as Kenny Rogers sang "you got to know when to hold them and when to fold them....and perhaps

most important.....when to run"

 

crop insurance alone will not do it, with the increased expenses this year........

 

but the question is, how to we approach the market........futures or options, and how far do we go out ?  will the big fireworks be

the new crop month (used to call it red corn).....or do we position ourselves a few months later, when we come to the realization,

"oh sugar, we can run out"..........or, when in Chicago, do as the traders do........go both ??

 

let's hear it folks........I think all of us could use a little help now.

 

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3 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: 44-21-40

I took some profits in dec corn futures and am now on the side with a couple of sell offers up a ways.  I'm watching on the corn.  The next 2-3 weeks should be interesting.

I took some losses on beans and am now almost on the side, with a couple of sell offers up a ways.  I'm willing to wait a while on beans.

We got 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain around here today.  It was used up and also cooled things off.  Corn started tasselling 10 days ago and some is still shooting tassels.  Spread out more than usual.  

 

Beans are short and have mostly canopied.  They are clean but with beans the weeds don't hit till August anyway so who can tell?  

 

Corn looks clean.  No diseases corn.  Lots of Japanese beetles and it can't be good when it's so hot.  Some are spraying beans and some are scouting.

More rain chances tomorrow.  I'd be glad to have it.;  My tile have quite running but I'm sure the corn roots are in moisture.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 44-21-40

you are very very lucky.......pasture is drying and starting to turn brown.....I have some milo that hasn't even come up

yet and it has been planted for some time now.

 

so do not realize how good they have it.

 

forecast  is calling for 105 Friday, and one source said they would not be surprised it it was 110 that day.

 

if that comes true.......it's over

 

but then temp moderates in the 90's over next week......off and on chances of rain, but not much rain amount.

 

remember, it only requires .01 of rainfall to validate their forecast.

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 44-21-40

how did your wheat turn out this year??

 

was vom an issue in your area??

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