5 - 15 Weather Update

[jennys_mn]

Good Morning.  Yesterday I was talking about the Cut Off Low the develops in the SW next week.  And part of the result of that is this:

Is a ways out out, but the dryer areas of TX, OK, KS, and NE may finally see some relief from the ongoing  drought.  But, again, this is 9 days or so away, but at least it's some hope.  I know - too little, too late.

This was an interesting map this morning.  A while back, I was asked what I consider the Northern Tier of states.  If you look at the white line that goes through ND, and follow it East, everything in the vicinity of that line and North is my Northern Tier area.  And this map shows why.  

North of that line, those of us up North tend to stay  under an airmass that is centered in Canada.  This year, it is especially the case.  this map is nine days away - for Friday, May 23rd.   Another significant part of this map is that the Gulf again is wide open and streaming warm moist air northward, where it colides with the air mass from the North that I pointed out earlier.  Which is where these maps come  from:

Yes, it's the 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day precip maps.  Not good.  We simply aren't going to get enough drying done to enable the WI, MN, ND, MI, and maybe some other scattered areas, to get finished.  This forecast takes us to the end of May, and the door is closing a bit more this morning.  

I'm still waiting for the call to go down to Evansville, WI to help my relation.  It's been on and off planting there.  He did manage to get about 75% done with corn between the showers.  No beans in yet.  He just called and said it was 38 degrees, and they had picked up another quarter inch of rain this morning.   Nothing now until next week there.

My beans in the garden planted on April 26th are just now popping out.  Nearly 3 weeks in the ground.  That's why C-X-1's map shows what it does.  Too cold - things simply aren't growing very fast yet.

That's it for this morning.  I wish I had more good news in this forecast for the guys up North.  Sorry.  Maybe tomorrow's forecast will be better.

Jen

[bkadds]

Jen--just wish we could move our farm for about two weeks.  We have had a whole .33" since the first of the year.  I am not sure what we ended up with last year as a total, but nothing is green except for what has been irrigated.  Cut wheat hay yesterday and it is the poorest I have even cut.  Hopefully, your prediction comes to play.  What do you think about the NWS forecasters?  Seems as if the Weather Channel forecast is more accurate here anymore on the extended.  The NWS just keeps revising right up to the day before.

[jennys_mn]

I use weather data from numerous sites, and from my own interprtation of the data.  My real long range stuff, like the cool weather this spring, when I said to reduce GDD's by 5 - 10 days on corn and my earlier prediction of a cool spring was from my own research and what I saw as a possibility.  

As far as the NWS, I look at what they put out, and try to find the why for it.  This mornings forecast was easy - I agreed on what they saw.  As you know, that's not always the case.  And you have to remember, this weather thing of mine on here started last summer when I watched one of the Saturday morning "talking heads" ag shows, and what they were showing was so inaccurate, that I thought that I could do better.  I'm using a little different format this year, and trying to show you all what I feel is the most significant part of the forecasts as it relates to what's going on at the farm level.  A beautiful day in the city (and a city weather forecaster giving it) may not be such a beautiful day on the farm.  

When I worked for the FAA, we had NWS forecasters at our facility.  That was 5 years ago, and I always felt they did a great job with their forecasts.  By and large, I still do.  Last summers forecasts were pretty bad though.  I still think that a lack of people (sequestration) led to the forecasters using more or less what the computers spit out.  It seems to be better this spring.

I haven't watched the weather channel for quite a while, so I can't comment on what they're showing.  I got tired of the continuous banter and fluff they put out.  Toward last when I watched their program,  I would record what I wanted to see (mainly the extended forecasts), so I could cut through the crap and all the repetitive stuff.  Now I don't watch it because of what I'm doing on here.

Anyway, after new stock market highs I guess people have decided to walk out the door with their profits.  The DOW has lost 250 points between yesterday and today, and I had a big jump last night in my municiple bond.  I still have far less exposure in the stock market than I had when I got basically out in March.  I may have been a tad early.  We'll see if the "get out in May and go away" saying for the stock market becomes true again this year.  As I write this, the market just keeps bleeding.  Hopefully, this isn't going to be a blood-bath day on the markets.

I haven't mentioned anything about the sun for a while.  The sun's poles flip may be complete, but it will take a bit more time for confirmation.  It will take another couple of years for the sunspots to completely fade away, and we'll probably then have a fair number (5 -10) of years of no sunspot activity.  With the decreased magnetic activity on the sun, and now beginning the drop into solar minimum, things could get really interesting in our long term weather.  Good thing we have some additional methane and CO2 in the atmosphere - in the near term, it's going to be a good thing.

Jen

[Hobbyfarmer]

Just had a snow pellet storm for about a minute. Brrr

[jennys_mn]

It got pretty cold last night.  I had things to do at home, but it was so cold, I decided to go to the Y for the morning - and part of the afternoon.  Overnight lows last night:

Man - in the 40's all the way to Texas.  Now that's chilly...

Jen

[Hobbyfarmer]

I haven't looked, is it extra hot in the southern hemisphere? Haven't heard anything about it if it is.

[rawhide]

Global warming causes global cooling first. I guess maybe probably i think.

[c-x-1]

10-20 degrees below average -- wow. SD, NE, MN, IA emergence/germination will be affected.

have any of the seed dealers marketed their "cool resistance" genetics...tis the season the market-place may find out---or IS everyone already ahead of the curve--planting "short season" variety?

we may have a record low GDD kinda year........................

[c-x-1]

right down the gullet tonight--FRZ-North/frost south - i'm following you now, Jen - my memory is slowly coming back - we thought last winter held on late --THIS is LATER, for sure!