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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

5 - 28 Weather Update

Good Morning!

 

Let's start this morning with the last 7 days rainfall totals:

 

 

Texas was the big winner here, giving much af the state a very needed drink.  In the last 24 hours, this is how the rain bucket looked:

 

US: Rainfall Estimate 24 Hour

 

WI got rain both where it was welcome and where it wasn't.  Central WI is shut down again after just getting started.  It looks like another tough year for the folks there cropping wise.  

 

The Jet Stream this morning looks like this:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

The cut-off Low  ovr East Texas is still bringing rain to the south.  That system turned out to be quite the little rain maker for you folks down south.

 

Four days from now, the Jet stream splits into multiple streams across the US, bringing in continued chances for much of the same as we have seen.  Afternoon pop up showers created by the heating of the day with enough humidity to cause it to rain:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

You can see another cut off Low forming over North CA, but this one is trapped between the the splits of the Jet Stream, and will not produce the same rainfall totals as the last one.  This is what rainfall looks like in that same time frame as the above map:

 

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

and the maps show little or no precip associated with that cut off low formation. Out in the Pacific, we still have that large area of high pressure.  West of Washington state you can see an area of Low pressure coming East and attempts to push out the High.  But here's what the forecasts show farther out (8 days from now):

 

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

The area of weather works it's way through the high pressure area, and then the High reforms  (10 days from now):

 

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

The maps still show no major systems moving across the US.  The Gulf is wide open the the Midwest 4 -5 days from now, and should continue to pump moist air into the Midwest:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

With the big blocking High out in the Pacific, the systems that develop over the continental US are quite weak, and don't have a whole lot of lifting ability to get the moisture into the upper atmosphere where they can condensate.  Looks like we are stuck with our afternoon showers for a while.  Some will get lots, because where these things form for the most part is where they dump their load of rain.  Some will get virtually nothing.  But at least, for now, we have some rain.  With Texas and the South picking up the rainfall they did, it will decrease the chance of that dryness moving into the Midwest.  The drought is still not over though, and we can move from an OK precipitation status to short in a few weeks.

 

Watford City, ND had a tornado (F2) spin up on Monday, totally unexpected.  Some years ago while I was working as an Air Traffic Controller, we lost multiple frequencies that we used to talk to aircraft that were broadcast from an antenna array in Watford City.  After sending a tech to the site, he reported back that the site was gone.  It had taken a direct hit from a tornado, and wiped the site clean.  The pictures that the oil workers on site were pretty spectacular, and the cloud that the F2 dropped out of didn't look particularily impressive.  C'est la vie.

 

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-watford-city-north-dakota-20140526

 

Jen

3 Replies
wglassfo
Veteran Contributor

Re: 5 - 28 Weather Update

Hi Jen

I thank you once again by including maps of the entire NA that I can understand

Also, your commentary is very easy to understand

I look for you to post, every day

Read every word

TIA

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 5 - 28 Weather Update

Thank you fro your kind comments Wayne.

When I was down working for my relation in Evansville, he couldn't understand why I would take time out of my day to put this daily weather sequence out for you guys, and not be compensated for it. I explained to him what happened last summer with the "talking heads" forecasters and that it ticked me off so bad that I would try to do better myself. It's really not very easy. Sometimes it goes together quick, other times, like this morning, it takes me a bit longer to evaluate what's going on, what I see down the road, and what you guys might like to see. I don't always include the extended forecasts if I feel they have nothing of substance to add to what I'm showing you all. I do it because it's enjoyable. I'm retired and have the time. And it's fun pitting myself against the "experts".

How am I doing for you guys? Anything else you'd like me to do or see on here? I'll try to put it out there for you.

Jen
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 5 - 28 Weather Update

Jen did you get my pm?

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