Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

5-4 Weather Update

Morning Guys.  For us up North, we have to be careful what we wish for.  I know Weather Underground and DTN both are saying that we have 3-4 days of rainy weather coming up this week.  This doesn't look to me to be a big rain maker.  Yes, our weather setup will span some thunderstorms and it you get under one on those, you could get soaked.  But overall, this doesn't look overly wet or severe.  The bigger story is after this passes:

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model



The is the projected weather map for May 14th.  It's the first time this year that we see a big High pressure system dominating the map.   Given that this next system, which should be impressive, is probably going to be not much, and then replaced by the above, tells me that our weather patterns are/have changed.  The air masses have worked out the bulk of their differences, and are now going into the summer pattern.


Here's the reason for my opening statement though.  I am very concerned about the extreme drought ongoing over TX and OK.  The weather service extended drought outlook shows that the areas north of the drought that are dry - all the way to MN - will improve over the summer.  I disagree here with the weather service.  I see the area from the panhandles expanding.  MO, IA, SW MN, S 2/3 of IL, S 1/2 of IN, and of course KS, NE, and SD will probably all be effected by this to a large degree.  The weather battle zones should play out over the Northern areas of the midwest I did not mention.  Those areas stand a chance of getting some precip, but that will depend on how dry it gets down the road.  Dry begets dry.  DO NOT WORK THESE FIELDS WET!  You will pay for it in the end.  An opportunity to get on the fields is coming.  You just have to be patient.  Just make sure you're ready to roll when you can.


As far as the wheat areas, nothing new there.  I think that battle is lost.


One more thing this morning.  That large High building in has an air mass temperature profile that looks like this:

10 Day forecast of 850 mb temperature and winds from the GFS model



This could be the beginning of a semi permanent High building into the plains.  Way to early for anything definite on that though, but is something to watch.  Normally, those semi permanent Highs will build in more to the east - you know - the dome of doom thing - but, like I said, too soon for that.  At least this year the weather systems are still moving, unlike last year when things got stuck weatherwise.




0 Kudos
5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: 5-4 Weather Update

Last year I backed the population down to 26500. This year I still have one or two days to decide if I'm going to drop it another 1500 or so. 

0 Kudos
Frequent Contributor

Re: 5-4 Weather Update

Jen, do you see an El Nino returning like many have predicted and if so, when? Doesn't such a situation typically provide above avg moisture to the southern plains?
0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: 5-4 Weather Update

98 degrees and 11% humidity


May 4



And more wind on the way to help dry us out  🙂

0 Kudos

Re: 5-4 Weather Update

O my sw. It's 180 from me.... Somewhere round 40-50 an soaking wet
0 Kudos