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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

5-6 Weather Update

Morning All!  I'm sure you're all busy this morning, and we need to look at the overnight changes.  First, overall, the forecast is dryer than yesterday.  The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

 

Temperature wise, not a lot of changes - cold North hot South.  But, first we need to get through this the next couple of days:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

This map is for Friday.  It shows a very strong convergence zone (white line coming up from Texas) bringing moisture in from the Gulf, the arid air mass from the SW, and combining with the cold, NW flow from Canada coming in over the Dakotas.  The jet stream, at the same time, looks like this:

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

This is a volitile setup, the question is where is the atmosphere going to explode.  This may spark some thunderstorms from TX to KS, but it looks to me like the major battle zone (of the air masses) will probably be from NE north.  I talked about this low that was getting organized a few days ago.  I don't think this is going to be a frog strangler system...it's going to dump in the major thunderstorm areas, and others 5 miles away may get nothing.  It's our typical spring/summer severe weather setup.  3 different air masses, all trying to work out their differences over the Midwest.  Oh - and that 5 miles - that's the answer to yesterdays question.  The weather put out by airports is good for a 5 mile radius around the airport - and a lot of our weather reporting is done by airport meteorologists.

 

Once this weather system passes though, we set up for this:

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

After the next few days, our weather finally clears out.   We should have at least a 7 day window of minimal precipitation over the Midwest.  Keep a watchful eye to the sky after today.  Someone is probably going to get their house blown away....

 

Jen

 

 

 

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9 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

Three days now with an east wind and still dry... not a good sign. This year just doesn't feel right.

 

I have good farmer friends out in the western part of Ks and the weather is taking a severe toll on them 

 

This is the third year for two of them and the fourth year of severe drought for the third one.

 

Two of them are dry land only and they missed out on the last few years of good prices and Decent prices to get financially healed up. 

 

Their crop insurance guarantee s are being trashed ad that is no way to make a living anyway. I am getting anecdotal stories of formally well healed farmers out there in less than good financial shape going into this year with no moisture prospects, not too big to fail.

 

My feeling is that the western third of Iowa is at risk of a very short crop

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

I still see longer term the drought in the panhandles extending NE all the way into WI.  That would include all of IA.  If El Nino develops later this summer, it should help.  But it's going to be too little and too late the way I see it.  No changes in my thinking on this one.

 

Jen

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crophugger
Senior Contributor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

Have to agree on the east winds hobby and no rain but were good for moisture for now.
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

I went out and took a look at the field that was tilled up next to me last night.  We've had full sunshine this morning (up until now) and the field still is dark and wet looking.   Humidity is only 45%.   We have a nice wind blowing too, although it's out of the southeast.  That field should be drying off, but it's taking it's time about it.  It tells me things here aren't quite right either.

 

Jen

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Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

That sounds like frost still coming out of the ground.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

I took a drive SW of Cannon Falls down to the Faribault area and then up to Northfield.  Nothing turning in the heavier ground.  it looked like a couple of farmers had taken the tractor out in a few of the fields to look at what going on out there.  Several areas with deep ruts through them and I saw 1 tractor stuck with nothing on it.  The surface is dry, but underneath the top it looks to be a quagmire below.  Here in the lighter soil between Northfield and Cannon Falls, everyone is in the fields.  If these guys to our SW pick up much more moisture over the next two weeks, we could be having a repeat of last year in the same areas.

 

Jen

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wglassfo
Veteran Contributor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

Hi Jen

I like those 1st 2 pictures you posted that showed the entire NA map

 

That is the kind of stuff I can understand

The other kind you usually post doesn't really give me any idea of what is happeneing, on my farm

I can't find where I am

The maps are way above my pay sale to understand

Perhaps others like them but keep it simple works for me

I can find my farm location on the 1st 2 maps

Not so on the others you usually post

I really like your posted comments

That part is really good to understand

I am located in S.W Ontario, Canada in the southern Great Lakes region

1/2 way between Lake Erie and Lake Huron 1/2 way between Detroit  and Port Huron, on your side, except I am on the Canadian side of the border,

We finally got a break in the weather and plantig our 1st corn- today-started at 2 P:M

Machinery is throwing up great balls of dust-today

Yesterday, even this morning, the soil was sad and wet-nobody doing anything but clean up jobs etc.

I day makes a big difference, if it is sunny and warmer , which is why we can suddenly go to work

Soil below the surface is normal for planting, but we do have a lot of tiles in our ground-everywhere

SRW took it in the shorts with a lot of acres being destroyed [RR] for something else due to severe winter kill, in our part of Ontario

Probably no-till beans-some corn

Just a comment and what I see from our farm

Thanks for your good work

 

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elcheapo
Senior Advisor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

Jen, have you ever been at the weather channel studios in Atlanta? I was wondering
If they have a bar on site, or what kind of
"Greenery" they have in the atrium?

I got in a few minutes ago, water dripping
Off my nose due to being hot. Fix a sandwich
And since I was in a bad mood, made a
Tomato beer (I puree a can of stewed tomato
Totally different flavor)

Anyhow, I popped on the TV to the wx channel, and they were going nuts
"Severe weather outbreak, 50 million
People in harms way the next couple
Of days"

We are in the red area, first day (Wed) we
Have a TORCON of a 3, .then Thur a
TORCON at 4

But....I did hear a rain crow today!
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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 5-6 Weather Update

Hi wglassfo - there is a lot of information on those small maps. With an iPad, you can expand the map and it makes it much easier to see what is going on. The numerous arrows on the maps show the wind direction, and the length of the arrow shaft gives the speed. They show temp by the color shading, and show graphically the convergence of the air masses. I've been looking at maps like these all my life, and I know that everyone doesn't have the experience to read and interpret these maps. That's why I always try to explain what I'm looking at on these maps. Like I said, if you have an iPad or another way to expand the maps, they are a bit easier to read. If any of you reading this have questions about any of the maps, don't be afraid to post a question or send me a personal message. I usually check the site several times a day.

Jen
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