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Veteran Advisor

$5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

Some market gurus see $5 soybeans without a trade deal with China. The panelists at this meeting in Chicago were asked about what the price could be with a deal and they opted to talk about stocks-to-use ratio.

 

Full story: Marketwatchers Play Out Trade Deal vs. No Deal

 

What say you?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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33 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

Most   Interesting   -   moving  towards   putting    M  F  P   on   steroids  -  ?       

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Frequent Contributor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

So, how is the trade war going for the rest of you? From my point of view it looks a lot like all wars. Just a bunch of us little guys getting killed or wounded.

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Senior Contributor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

Must be talking old crop beans.  The new loan rate for beans is $6.20/bu. for the 2019 crop.

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Senior Contributor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

if soybeans are $5 then corn will be $2 and wheat will be under $3. and farming as we know it will cease to exist.  In my area urea jumped $40/ton and rumor has it another $50 soon. Sad thing is there is no limit with no fair trade commission. We expect the chinese to play fair but multinational corps can screw anyone they want. This is a result of  all the mergers of the recent past that left us with little competition.

 

Senior Contributor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

Wonder if old Mr. Trump has any bankruptcy lawyer referrals might need one.
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Honored Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

IMO and of course I can be wrong, I think we should have a price support/set-a-side program again, if we want the medium size farmer to survive...and even a few of the large ones.  To appease our city brothers & sisters we`d need to make some concessions on water/air quality and some payment limitations, because a Edina housewife isn`t going to support a program that enables operations that have a fleet of combines, each one worth more than her house.

 

If you`re a "sensible sized farm"  (my definition Smiley Happy  )  you`d be guaranteed $10/bushel cash for your bean at your nearest market in exchange for setting a side 10% of your bean ground and maybe a token environmental practice and similar price supports for corn and beans.  

 

Now "I know" a few things, the livestock/poultry industries like cheap feed, I remember the silly signs Sparboe put in HyVee when corn was $8 how they had to raise the price of eggs because of "$8 corn and ethanol".  However, if we have "$2 corn & $5 beans" the CAFO vertically integrated livestock industry better enjoy their "cheap feed" because it`ll only last 2 years and then when enough farmers are broke, grain prices will jump over the Moon. for as far as the eye can see. 

 

I also "know" farmers "want the government out of farming" ...yeah, that`s a nice little dream, but as you can see the government IS has and always will be involved in farming. It`s just do you want "a few of the carrots or do you only want to be beaten with the stick"? 

 

Anyway, just my morning`s thoughts   Have a beautiful day everyone, it`s looking great!

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

We will have a beautiful day BA...as our "planting window" was slammed shut

last night with 1" of rain and 48 degrees this morning...in C-IN, not MN for

goodness sakes. More rain on sunday so our window will be well past

optimal planting dates, but hey, a 180 nat yield is in the bag.

 

So, is Pres Trump, more like Carter, Hoover, or King George...thinking

King George so far? :-)

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Veteran Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

B A -  I'm  thinking , maybe,   a  lot  more  of  the  world  will  be  fed  with  half  priced  beans,  or  is  the  world  on  an  International  Diet  Plan  - ? 

 

 

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

Sorry my charts se 6.50-6.60 lows before getting back into an uptrend. Naturally the new ccc grain loans will act like support going forward.
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