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Senior Contributor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

at the turn of the century ag was in such bad shape they gave us two deficiency payments to help out. as time went on the corn and soybean boards pushed for ethanol and to open china for beans. It took years for that to happen and ag was finally being rewarded for products the world wanted.Now in the span of one year we have lost all market share and pissed off most of our former frinds and allies! And ag is worse off thannwe were back then!
Veteran Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

 
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Advisor

Re:I don't know about $5 but $6 is real possibility.

New crop soy basis is at least 75 cents everywhere now.  With Nov. futures at $8.30 that means that new crop is no more than $7.50 just about everywhere. That's easily within striking range of $6 by Nov. already.

  But far more troubling is the export picture.  The latest WASDE has exports at 1775 M bu. and ending stocks at 995 M bu.  If the Chinese cancel the  they've 272 M bu. they've spoken for but not taken delivery of  then exports drop to 1501 M bu. and carryover climbs to 1267 bu.  Add that to the fact that 5 countries actually cancelled previous bean sales the week before last, causing net bean sales to drop to (negative) 149,000 MT.

  Now, we're still officially at 84.6 M plt'd acres and 49.5 bpa for next year.  If we plant significantly more acres and achieve that 49.5 really knows where next year's total supply could go or where the price might be.

  

     

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Honored Advisor

Re: Re:I don't know about $5 but $6 is real possibility.

If we want to be honest, we never could count on the Chinese...oh they`d buy beans only if we stuck a $10 bill in every bushel of beans that they "bought" in the form of other economic concessions.  The quicker we move on adjusting our reliance on the China market the better of we will be and that might involve a transition farm program, finding more reliable customers , maybe that will coming to grips that the US is a "corn nation".  Perhaps that will mean planting 120 million acres of corn and only 40 million acres of beans and more oats and hay?  

 

Even if we elect a limp wristed president that grovels and apologizes in 2020, that bridge has been burned.."you`ll never get anything by begging".   China is gone, have a strong cup of coffee, sober up and take a cold shower...she`s gone, run off with the Brazilian salesman.  

 

Here is a clip from a 1990`s Mel Gibson movie Ransom, where kidnappers (China) takes his son and asks for $2 million in ransom.  Mel turns the tables and offers a $10 million reward to anyone that brings the kidnappers in dead or alive  Smiley Happy...well, that`s the only way you can handle these people. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_k6DRsfAhI 

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Contributor

Re: Re:I don't know about $5 but $6 is real possibility.

Trump is only making America Great Again!     Most of us voted for him...give him time.   I do not like the bail out in government money as it is Socialism at its best.     Capitalism is the best....the fittest survive......and maybe after all....there are too many farmers???     If the US is swimming in excess grain.....then we do need survival of the fittest!!!    Go Trump!!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Re:I don't know about $5 but $6 is real possibility.

  The  fittest  survive  -  along  with  a  Gov.  Check  -  -  - 

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Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

mr white trash we did have a market before your president decided to put tariffs on last summer which was after the crop was planted! If the tariffs would have gone into effect before we had planted last years crop farmers would have planned differently. We were under the assumption business as usual with china buying 2 out of every 3 bushels of beans.Its almost impossible to change 90 million acres of a crop to something else without developing some type of crop that is needed. Im not sure but i dont know of any crop that is in short supply.
Too many farmers? Right now there are 1.9 million farmers but approx 300,000 farmers produce 75-80% of the foodstuffs. The other 1.6 million fall into a hooby farm category where they have an outside job that is their main income source. Not that they arent imprtant. Im wondering how many farmers is “too many” by your definition??
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Veteran Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

Remember  the  guy  calling  the  tariff  shots  -  has  extensive  first  hand  experience  in  bankruptcy  maneuvers  -  sleep  well  on  that  - - -  

Advisor

Beans to say $9+ for Brazil

Or " supposed " BR beans. So DC finishes flunking " basic trading ". I don't think uanyone is 2 surprised .LoL. Trade deficits are just a supposed number with today's currency trading to adjust currency value. As far as China requiring companies to comp patented property to China in return for China Giving those companies money, land, an unencumbered production area etc etc etc....those cos do not Have to take the deal. They can go down the road to somewhere else if they desire. Sooo DC flunks trading 101" BR is simply buying USA beans to supposedly go to BR now. Sometime, 1 just has to laugh.

Advisor

Re: $5 Soybeans Without A Trade Deal?

It's interesting that the EU trade imbalance is much larger than the China trade imbalance with the USA.

Is the USA just picking on China because they're Red?
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