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Veteran Advisor

6 - 21 Weather Update

Good Morning.  Speaking of Dr. Oz and his show, some time ago he did a show on the benefits of unsweetened tart cherry juice in helping you sleep.  The stuff doesn't taste the best, but 8 ounces drank 2 hours or so before bedtime really does seem to work in helping you fall asleep faster and stay asleep.  I used to use it when I was an Instructor in Oklahoma City, and had several double shifts back to back.  It really seemed to help.  It can be a bit hard to find, or you can do what I'm planning to do in a few weeks, and that is to take a trip up to Door County in WI and pick our own.  But they need to be the tart cherries, not the sweet ones.

 

Let's take a peak at the weather.  Our current Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

Over the next 5 days, it greatly decreases in intensity over the US, and moves back into Canada.  But, by a week from now, it's forecast to do this:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

That wil aid in bring more unstable air back into the Northern US, and more chances of rain.  The Gulf still remains open the next 10 days.  This is the wind and temperature map for Monday:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

Our strongest convergence between two air masses continues to be from the Panhandles North into N and S Dakota.  The Texas coast can't get away from the strong SE wind off of the Gulf, which will continue to bring more Sargasso Sea seaweed onto the beaches of the Gulf.  They say that they like the seaweed because it helps build the beaches back by trapping sand in the seaweed.  It looked like it worked from what I saw, but made for a not so pleasant trip to the beach.

 

Anyway, that persistant wind will continue to bring moisture into the Midwest, and with moisture and the heating of the day, thunderstorms are always a possibility.

 

A week from now we turn up the heat in the Midwest.  Here's what we look like in 10 days:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

This is degrees C.  Most of the Midwest will be pushing the 90's, and Shaggy, you'll need to break out the ice tea as temps in Central Kansas, Nebraska and Oklahoma puch up against the century mark.  I suspect those temps will continue a slow march East as July heats up. 

 

The main areas of weather will still be in the vicinity of the jet stream, and will continue to favor (or not favor) the Northern areas.  This will continue to be a witch's brew of heat, moisture, the jet stream and an occasional low pressure system that either sneaks through the High blockade in the Pacific or is brewed over the Panhandles.  Where the 4 collide the area will get dumped on.  And that remains over where it has been raining.  Over the next few days, this Low pressure system, one of the few that's managed to develop from Canada to Texas, will work it's way through the country:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

and give most everyone a shot a some rain.  The above is Monday's forecast map.  The systems are slowing down overall, and this system will take it's time to move East. 

 

The crops here on the sands of the Cannon River valley are enjoying all the rain, but I'm sure we have leached a good portion of the N away.  For now, the crops here are looking real good.

 

Have a good weekend everyone.

 

Jen

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Senior Advisor

Re: 6 - 21 Weather Update

Thanks for the heads up Jen, enjoyable as always.  We don't drink much iced tea at out house, but we run through ice water like crazy.  Harvest is in full swing here and if we are able to get 3 or 4 more days of good cutting weather I would think this area would be nearing completion except for me, most of my wheat has green streaks still running thru it.  Not sure why I'm the odd man out this year, but that's just how it goes at times.

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