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Veteran Advisor

6 - 23 Weather Update

Good Morning.  Well, we have some very welcome sunshine here in Cannon Falls.  We only have the rent - a - kids a few more days, so today we're building a bat house and heading for the pool.

 

From the weather and crops front, spoke with some friends back in Central WI, and though it's not as doom and gloom as it was last year, it's getting close.  Quite a few acres did not get planted, and from what I'm being told, most all the acres went in (again) in somewhat less than perfect conditions.  My heart goes out to all you guys over there.  We went strawberry picking yesterday over by Northfield, and the crops are showing the effects of all the water on the heavier ground.  Corn is yellower, and quite frankly the peas that are planted on the heavier soils don't look good at all.  I've yet to see a nice looking bean field out of the Cannon Valley.  The sun today will help - let's see if it stick around for a bit.

 

I'm sure most everyone has heard about the flooding here in MN.  It's not a good situation for many that live and farm in low lying areas.  Heck, peoples docks are even under water on many lakes.  It's a mess, and it's going to take some time to get it all cleaned up when it stops raining.

 

Let's look at some rainfall totals.  First, let's look yesterdays rainfall:

 

 

And the weekly totals:

 

 

 

Those are huge totals for parts of WI, MN, and  IA, and most of those areas didn't need the rain coming into last week.  Let's look at the Jet Stream this morning:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

As I spoke about last week, the major Jet has retreated up into Canada, and will give us a break from the rain.  But, in by Saturday, the Jet starts working its way back into the US, and with it, we should see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.  This is Saturday's map:

 

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

In the lower levels of the atmosphere, the Gulf remains open over the next 10 days.  Obviously, we are stuck in a pattern, but it's a good patern for crop development.   My guess is that the blocking High in the Pacific is allowing the Gulf to remain open to the Midwest.  Without the Jet Stream though, there isn't wuite enough lift in the atmosphere to get thunderstorm development.  Continue to watch the Jet and where it is as to how your weather is going to be.  With the Gulf continuing to pump in mositure, humidity levels are going to stay relatively high thoughout the Central US.  All it needs is  a lifting force to get thunderstorms going.  Heating of the day most of the time is enough, and we will continue to see pop up showers that die when the sun goes down over most of the Midwest.

 

By Wednesday, we have a High pressure system that drops out of Canada, barely into the US, and exits to the NE.

 

 

 

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

It's going to clear skies out for a few days, but then we return to the pattern that we have been in.  By Friday, we return to what we've been seeing - more chances of rain, some locally heavy.

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

It's a terrible forecast for you guys trying to combine wheat or putting up dry hay.  The next nice window for that looks like it comes at the end of the 10 day forecast maps, with a High again dropping out of Canada, but this time invading the Central US:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

It does not look like it will stick around.   Be ready to make hay while the sun shines.

 

That's it for today.  Most of us have chances for precip every day for the rest of the week.  Temperatures remain mild, nothing extreme except in the SW US.  Time to watch the corn grow.

 

Jen

 

 

 

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Re: 6 - 23 Weather Update

I spoke with some of my wife's family from NW Iowa in Woodbury County and they said some parts of the county have received between 16"-19" of rain over the past 10 days to 2 weeks.

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