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Veteran Advisor

6 - 24 Weather Update

Good Morning!  I got chased in the house about sunset last night, the mosquitoes are out in force, and I assume from here they will just get worse.  I hate mosquitoes....

 

Our current Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

and the Jet Stream 6 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

This will favor thunderstorm development in the Northern Tier of states.  What's new, right?  Really, nothing.  We stay in the same pattern.  It will be very difficult to make dry hay.  Montana and some of the areas surrounding may get a chance on Sunday - Wednesday of next week, and OK and TX, but other than that, showers may rain on the newly cut hay most anytime.  Last night the radar was lit up almost coast to coast and North to South with popcorn showers.  That will continue.  The Gulf stays open.

 

As I have been watching these systems move, I had another thought this morning.  As we move ahead into August and September, if we do keep this same pattern, it will be bad news for the Northern Tier states.  Remember this Spring - how cold it was?  We still have those same factors in play.  Let's look at it again.  This is next Sunday:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

The major Lows are in Canada.  That's what we have see all year.  The lows that have come across the US are quite weak systems.  But those in Canada, they have are well developed, and on the back side of these systems they pump down cold air.  On the map above,  we have a low, that was a major system and lost the battle as it fought for dominence with the High in the Pacific.  But ahead of it, over Saskatchewan, a new Low forms.  These systems are moving fairly slow, and by next Monday, it looks like this:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

That Low, if it were later in the year, would be puliing down air from the Artic circle all the way to Texas.  That's what we have had going on all year so far.   These systems are so strong, that we haven't been able to get real hot weather into the mid section of the country.  But come fall, this will be a major concern with crops that are generally two weeks to a month behind.   I've seen nothing that is going to change this pattern.   Buying puts to protect the downside?  If I were an end user or speculator, I'd be using this opportunity to buy calls into early next year.  The market seems to think that everything is great.  We'll see.  We can freeze three times before killing a crop in the spring (as the saying goes), but only once in the fall.  I know, I know, the trade needs to see it first.  Go ahead - keep selling.  For Northern Tier producers - don't sell what you don't have and certainly not above your insurance levels.  It's a good way to lose the farm....

 

Jen

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

Jen, your still posting like a producer.  I've never met a producer that wasn't a bull and an enduser that wasn't a bear.

 

We need about 10 days of dry weather in Central Kansas to get all the work caught up.  Notice I didn't say hot and dry, just dry would be nice.  How long has it been that Kansan's have had to say that.  If that were granted, it would allow us to finish planting milo and double crop beans, finish with wheat harvest as well as allow us time to get fields sprayed and or tilled depending on our operation's.  2 weeks of drier weather would even grant most enough time to get the first hay cutting put up.

 

Come on Jen work your magic, rub your crystal ball or wave that magic wand on Kansas one more time.  Heart

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Senior Advisor

Re: Jen you do know don't you?

The mosquito is the minnesota state bird!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

Sorry Shag, it's not in the cards. You're a bit to far North and will be in the showers area.

I try to balance the end user and producer side. Given a toss up though, the producer wins - every time. I can't help it. It's my core.

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

If the mosquitoes get too bad, I may have to move my temporary residence to somewhere like the Black Hills for a month.  If you aren't familiar with them (Rapid City, SD), they don't have sketes.  I'm still trying to play catch up though for being gone two weeks....

 

Jen

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Senior Contributor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

OK Jen...I'll bite...Why no skeeters in RC, SD ????? Can't take the Winters ????  lol   John

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Senior Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

Skeeter.jpg

 

Everyone needs a Skeeter like this.  Smiley Very Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

Truthfully, I'm not sure why the Black Hills regions has so few mosquitoes.  It's  not that that don't have any - they do have a few.  But every time that I've been there, it was a great camping experiance.  Maybe someone on here that lives there could fill us in on the why.

 

Jen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

The Black Hills & Rapid City have some mosquitoes but since it is a semi-arid climate without much standing/stagnant water they don't have their "normal" breeding ground.  If you think the mosquitoes in southern MN are bad try going up north.  They have the skeeters -on-steroids there!!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 6 - 24 Weather Update

Yeah, I'd find it hard to live up there.  We stayed at a nice park East of Fargo one time - Buffalo River State Park.  It was beautiful.  Beautiful swimming area.  Nice tent camping.  No one there.   We found out why as we were setting up the tent in the middle of the day.  The skeetes were horrendous!  If you went to the swimming hole - you ran.  If you went to the bathroom - and hopefully not at night - you ran.  Without - even with - bug spray, you couldn't be outside.  All night long in the tent, all you heard was the swamming of skeets just outside the canvas.  It was terrible.

 

My sons place by Detroit Lakes, if not already like that, I know will be soon.  The bugs really like me for some reason.  If I lived up there, I would be a captive in my house for 18 hours a day.  I'll stay here in Cannon Falls.  At least with our sand base, we usually don't have that much standing water around.

 

Jen

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