cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

7 - 14 Weather Update

Morning Guys.  We have some changes in the weather patterns this morning that I thought you might like to see.  Let's get started.

 

Our Current Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

As you can see, we have a well developed Low skirting the US and Canadian border.  By Saturday, as the Low moves East, it tries to devlope a small cut off Low over Lake Michigan - but that attempt fails a couple of days later.

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

The important thing to watch here in the upper atmosphere is the high over TX extending up the East coast.  This should kill any chance for a hurricane on the East coast for the next ten days, as this high builds in to the West Central US:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

This is a week from now - next Monday.  That High in NM (upper level again) moves North over the next few days, and it looks like it may park itself in that general area for a while.  It will cut off high level moisture into the Mid West - probably not a good set up for the soybeans right now the way it looks.

 

Low level atmosphere wise, most of this week the Gulf is shut off, as you can see by this weather map for Friday:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

By next Sunday, six days from now, our major convergence area is still well South of the Midwest:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

which will bring showers and thunderstorms to NE, KS, and OK area, but the moisture will not make it much farther North.  Looking a a bit farther to 10 days from now - next Thursday, we see heat starting to build into the central US:

 

 

 

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

Not a major problem yet - but something to watch.  Moisture stays very limited over the bulk of the US the next 10 days - with the exception of the Southern Plains area.  This could be a bad setup for the beans coming into August, which most on here seem to agree don't look that great still.  

 

The longer day forecasts by the NWS still suck.  The latest round shows an area around OK that shows normal temps, and everything else above.  Really?  How does that work?

 

That's it for today.  I have a dentist appointment in 30 minutes (I hate the dentist).  And, I'm expecting a call any minute from OKC to set up a return date.  I'm going to push for Oct 1st.  We'll see.....

 

Jen

0 Kudos
7 Replies
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

Hey Jen keep up the weather reports we're really banking on them.  Glad to see a little moisture heading back to Kansas, we've been dry since last Wednesday without a single drop.  Finally got all the wheat cut yesterday but I've got to get equipment cleaned up and put away and also need to get about 100 6' rounds brought in out of the fields.  All spraying completed for the most part so if you could hold off on the rain till say Friday I should be able to make that work.  See what you can do, wave the magic wand or rub on that crystal ball a little.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

Ok - I'll try - some of this is out of my hands though.

And it looks like I'll get to experience that weather first hand next week. My reporting date for OKC is next Wednesday.

Jen
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

Wish you the best of luck Jen, you must be a darn good instructor for them to keep calling you.  Hope your additional duties don't interfere with your daily weather reports, but if they do I'm sure most of us will understand.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

They are really pressed for certified instructors right now. Due to the government sequestration, they are way behind in getting students out to facilities, compounded with the failure rate at both the Academy and in the field being higher than what was expected. They are even talking about running 24 hours (3 shifts) to meet the demand from the field. What was a nice, peaceful summer for me looks to be ending with working double shifts 2-3 days a week, and maybe mids. I must be stupid or something.....

Jen
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

I've got a full time off the farm job that I've had for 12 years now that is rotating shift work.  I hear what you're saying about the mids.  If it weren't for the odd hours, working the midnight shift wouldn't be all that bad.  Smiley Very Happy

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

So Ms Jen why the distaste for dentists? I look forward to your response as I might know one quite well!
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: 7 - 14 Weather Update

Dentists?  Issues from childhood.  I grew up with my Grandparents that didn't believe in doctors, dentists, that sort of thing.  Growing up on the farm, I don't think my sisters or I EVER had a toothbrush or toothpaste in the house.  I know - I know, that's disgusting.  My early experiences with the horse doctor (no offense to todays vets) dentist that we went to were not good.  By the time my sisters and I finally got to a dentist, our teeth were pretty bad, and required hours and hours of work to do all the fillings, extractions of permanent teeth, etc., with a dentist that didn't believe much in pain medication, or was not very good with doing novacaine.  I'm lucky that my teeth are as good as they are.  I've spent thousands on crowns over the years, only to find out the crowns are not a cure all, as one broke off last year, and I had to put in a post.

 

I always wear very light clothing when I go to the dentist - and kick off my shoes so I don't overheat.  Drilling for me is the worse, because it always take me back to that old dentist chair and the spit sink.   I don't mind the dentist so much these days.  Today was a semi annual cleaning and check up, and all is well.  YEAH!!!  But, the mind is a terrible thing, and it remembers the agony I went through 50 years ago at the dentist - and it wasn't good.....

 

Jen

0 Kudos