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Veteran Advisor

7 - 2 Weather Update

Good Morning.  

 

Let's start this morning with the current Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

And the forecast Jet Stream for next Monday:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

As you can see, the Jet Stream is not going to move into Canada as long as was anticipated last week, and will continue to play a part in the weather along the Northern Tier states.

 

Yesterdays rainfall looked like this:

 

 

 

And for the week, we now have these totals:

 

 

 

IA, NE, KS, ND and I'm sure the Canadian Provinces of Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec continue to be the big winners in the rain department, although winning the rain lottery right now looks like a losing hand.

 

On the surface right now:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

you can see the well organized Low that brought the Central US all the rainfall this past week is now up by Hudson Bay, High pressure in control of the Central US, and you can now see Tropical Storm Arthur as it begins to build off the Florida coast.  Peak winds are still low at 57 mph, but it is forecast to grow into a Cat 1, possibly 2 Hurricane as it moves up the coastline over the next 5 - 6 days.  This isn't going to be a monster storm, but it will bring some heavy rainfall to the East Coast and some winds capable of damage.

 

As we move into Saturday morning:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

you cna see Arthur has developed and tightened into a compact storm system off the coast of Maine, with a trailing Cold Front all the way back into Florida, while we have another little system generating some light showers over the Midwest from a series of Low pressure systems, all building off and joining with the Low in Northern Canada.  Off the West coast of British Columbia, we have another brave Low pressure system that does battle with our blocking High in the Pacific, and it gets pushed North to Alaska before it makes any significant movement inland.  Systems over the next 10 days continue to build and move like they have been, although it looks like the major rain events may be moving a bit farther South, and over the next 10 days, impacting S IA, NE, MO, Central IL, OH, and IN more than where it has been.  In this forecast map for Tuesday, you can clearly see the advance of the air mass from the Gulf is stopped in the Central part of the US:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

On this map for Tuesday though, you don't see that well defined convergence of the two air masses (white line from Tx to ND) that we had a few days ago that caused the severe weather outbreak.   this shouldn't be as bad, but will be capable of dropping a fair amount of precip where the thunderstorms form.

 

Still nothing threatening temperature wise, and we only have a couple of days that could approach the hot, sticky dew points in the 70's in the upper Midwest.  Next Monday into Tuesday is the time frame for that:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

where Gulf moisture again makes its way all the way to Canada.  This could once again spark some thunderstorms North of the area I outlined earlier, which was the general rainfall pattern for the next 10 days.  These two days will be the exception.  Sorry guys - still nothing dry for an extended period.  About two days, maybe three, is the most you can hope for.

 

Jen 

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