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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

7-30 Weather Update

Good Morning!  Well, the market thinks it's going to rain.  Let's see where that thought process is at.

 

This mornings Jet Stream:

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

shows a large, well developed Low north of the Great Lakes.  Moisture is still limited by the Gulf being shut off, and what moisture is falling is over OK and KS this morning.  In my earlier weather posts, I was thinking that maybe Western NE may also benefit from this event, but not so much now.  Shaggy - enjoy!  

 

A week from now, the Jet Stream is forecast to look like this:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

with a West to East flow up North, and that big High Pressure system over Mexico blocking the flow of moisture from the Gulf into the Midwest at the higher levels of our atmosphere.  No help for rain there, other than the event we have going on the next few days here in OK.  Let's look at the lower levels:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

This is today, and you can see the little Low over OK, moisture streaming into the area from the Gulf, and meeting with the air from the Northwest.  And it's raining.  Now, let's look at the rain event that the trade thinks is going to save this crop a week from now:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

The above is the beginning of the rain event a week from now.  Forever in weather forecasting.  We already know that the jet stream is not going to be playing a big factor in this event, let's take a look at the lower level winds:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

This is next Wednesday.  You can see the Gulf is back open, but much of that air will be modified by traveling over W TX on it's way North.  There is no real strong line of confluence, where you have moisture from the south meeting with the cold Canadian air from the North.  So that is also lacking for the rain event.

 

Next Thursday:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

We have the Gulf open, with a confluence of air masses mainly over NE and KS.  The question is, how far North the moisture makes it.  This could turn out to be another event like we have today, mainly a KS, OK and adding NE back into the event.  By Friday of next week:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

The event for the Midwest is over, as the Gulf moisture is deflected more East.

 

More in next post.

 

 

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2 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 7-30 Weather Update

So we have some moisture, we know the Jet is negative factor.  Now we neee to look at the event trigger:

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

We have a weak low that develops over SD on Tuesday.  By Wednesday:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

it connects into that semi-permanent area of Low pressure that has been developing over the Panhandles all summer.  Thursday evening:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

and here it is - the big rain event.  And Friday:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

This is believable, for OK and KS.  North of there - shakey.  I think OK and KS steal the moisture before it gets north.

 

 

 Will it happen?  I feel that it will for like I said earlier - OK, NE, KS.  This system really though is very weak.  The confluence is week.  The jet stream is week.  We aren't going to be all that hot.  I see the moisture as being limited.  Beyond those three states, I think we will have decreasing amounts as the system moves North and East.  Some areas will get rain, mostly in the 1/2" area (I'll call it 20% coverage over the bulk of the Midwest).  Very few will see over an inch (less than 5% coverage). That's the way I see it now.  There's just too many things for me that sayes this will not be a big rain event.  We'll see.

 

Jen

 

 

 

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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: 7-30 Weather Update

Didn't get as much as we would have like Jen but every drop was appreciated.  We only received 1/4" but couple that with unseasonal temps forecasted for the next several days and it'll stretch that much farther, possibly even into the next event next week.  Not too far west and south of me and they received well in excess of 1" and I've heard 1.75" to 2" in several spots.  Southwestern Colorado I was told received 5"+ in a few areas.  Nice rain and temperatures for this location so far this summer, we've been blessed and are oh so thankful.

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