cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

$7.50 Soybeans? What?

RaboAgriFinance released a 10-year baseline study, similar to the USDA's Outlook in February, and it ain't forecasting a real rosy picture.

 

Full story:  Unless Cleared, Soybean Hurdles Darken Price Outlook, Bank Study Shows.

 

What say you?

Keep in mind, this baseline assessment study plays out  three different scenarios.

 

Mike

 

 

 

4 Replies
Advisor

Re: $7.50 Soybeans? What?

So are low prices the result of:

A.  Overproduction of soybeans,

B.  African Swine Flu killing millions of pigs, or

C.  Trump's Tariffs.

D.  All of the Above.

Answer Must Be:  It's all Trump's fault that the Chinese are now forced to greatly increase their consumption of DOG MEAT.

....do dogs like soy?  #NewSoybeanMarket

9 questions about your dog that a DNA test could answer ...

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: $7.50 Soybeans? What?

Thanks for writing the story Mike.

It seems to contradict itself somewhat.

Cargill doesn't see demand sliding, they anticipate enough volume to keep plants running.

 And they don't care what the price of beans is ....... they just want volume and they mark it up accordingly.

Rabo --- one has to wonder what their financing....... bean production or processing plants?  

Cargill's angle must be .......... We need more beans for more plants ...... and this year the crop is struggling.  So lets spin it  like there is nothing to see here.  And maybe shake a few beans loose at these prices. ( that will happen anyway,,,, cash flows are probably stinking already.

I often wonder if half the export "talk" isn't an effort to diminish the reaction to an obviously dismal harvest.  And naturally sink the USS Trump.   I keep asking myself, "If there is nowhere in the US that has excellent yields (above normal or even last year) how bad will this be if 30% of the crop is still out there in the mud and snow...... and 15% went to PP????    So how would a Cargill keep from having to pay 15$ a bushel for the 50% that is in the bin after Thanksgiving??   In kansas they keep telling us how good the crops are east of wichita or in north central Ks....... like we don't know anybody over there.  

Most pesimistic I have been over a harvest.... actually it is the second year I have expected a bad crop..... 2011 also .. I tried to tell ya how bad it was south of I-70..... What a mess.  Corn wasn't available.  Cows had been killed for 4 years of drought, usda denied it until August of 2012 when it was obvious 750 million bushels on paper meant we were out. 

Beans adjusted to about 400m this year and a short crop coming in..... so if 250m is empty........ those plants will be ready sometime after the 2020 crop and china has its 450th ASF outbreak....  

We need some new price depressing stories....... these are getting rewashed too often..

 

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re:It's hard to argue.......

It's hard to argue the export talk when they have the figures to prove it. And not only do bean yields increase every year but Brazil adds 2% more acres as well.  The last time I looked we were adding on ave.  a bushel per acre per year to our national yield, and that's 80 million bushel per year from that alone. 

 I do think that some of the lack of pigs will be made up by increased poultry production which also uses bean meal.

  And then there's the indirect consequences of the trade war, the global economy has slowed significantly meaning that the lack of money will cut the ability of foreign buyers to buy beans or meal.

  It's getting hard to remember but just few years ago, I was thinking that beans were our future bright spot, the key to better farm incomes.

0 Kudos
Advisor

$11.50 beans


@marketeye wrote:

RaboAgriFinance released a 10-year baseline study, similar to the USDA's Outlook in February, and it ain't forecasting a real rosy picture.

 

Full story:  Unless Cleared, Soybean Hurdles Darken Price Outlook, Bank Study Shows.

 

What say you?

Keep in mind, this baseline assessment study plays out  three different scenarios.

 

Mike


Say more like an $11.50 baseline on the Low for beans over the 10 year future. 

And it Truly does not take much for the $11.50 to end up more like a $14.50 Low end bean baseline. 

We'll See. 

I kinda am looking forward to perhaps some $21 beans starting in 2020 due to drought. 

We'll See. 

0 Kudos