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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

8 - 11 Forecast Update

Good Morning.  Let's take a look at the over night and weekly rainfall:

 

US: Rainfall Estimate 24 Hour

 

 

 

Southern SD, NE, KS, MO, Southern IL and SW IA all picked up substantial moisture over the past week.  The Northern Tier area and Maryland, not so much.  My neighbor over at my former farm says that the corn there is starting to fire.  He also said there are a LOT of fields that have not tasseled yet, with some fields apparently only waist high.  Sounds like that is probably going to make some high priced grass when it's all said and done.  You can't plant corn in Central WI in July and think it's going to make much of anything - especially this year.  JCCWIS, are you seeing stuff like that by your place too?

 

The stock market had an outside trading day higher on Friday, and has gapped higher this morning.  Hopefully my investments can regain some of what they have lost over the last week or so.  My municiple bond with the City of Birmingham is doing really good though.  I still wonder about lending money to a city in bankrupcy.  

 

An active Jet Stream stays in play this week for the US.  Currently, it looks like this:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

The Low in the SW will get reincorporated into the Jet, and as it does, it will help give a chance of rain to the Pacific NW, but don't expect a lot.  Wednesday's map is much like we've seen all summer long:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

The big High in the Pacific still blocking cold fronts from coming into the US from the West.  High's in the Gulf and along the East coast protecting us from hurricanes.  We have High Pressure dominating the Central US this week, with the low in Canada and cold front that did drop some measureable rain in the S and SW corn belt exiting to the NE and giving Maryland's huge acreage a drink.  In the above forecast map, you can see the Central US's next weather maker, again, we have to look North at the big Low pressure system up by Alaska.  That Low actually again gets killed by that big High in the Pacific, but in it's wake, a new Low will form, again in Northern Canada, and it will again join with that Semi-Permanent Low we again see over the Panhandles, and by the weekend will once again bring showers and Thunderstorms to much of the Midwest.

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

It looks a bit dryer than it did last week, and will probably be on the order of what we just saw, but because of the location of the Jet, some of the more Northern areas should also pick up some rain later this week and into next.

 

Broke Farmer in AZ - you get a 7 day vacation from hay cutting.  Be back for next Monday ready to move into the hay.

 

That's it for today.  I work a swing shift today, a double tomorrow, and a day on Wednesday.  I hate the double quick turns, as I will probably only get 4 - 5 hours of sleep between the two turns.  Not exactly a healthy schedule for a bunch of 60 year old instructors.

 

Jen

 

 

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12 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

great morning here

 

Sun shine for the first time in six days.

 

Good start on the stock market this morning .  My kmp and mwe are leading the way.  The jump is not a good thing in the long run for me as far as returns in the future are concerned.in the kmp deal. At least I had increased by 50% or more the exposure in them earlier this year. 

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

Yeah - I saw the big jump in Kinder Morgan this morning.  When I had to pay  my taxes this spring, I had to rout a lot of my individual stocks that I had, and, I didn't like what I saw with the market.  I couldn't see borrowing $500,000 to invest in the stock market last spring to hold onto the stocks that I had, so I held onto what I felt was the best.  KMP wasn't one of them, as they hadn't done a lot in the year that I owned them.  But like I said - I sleep at night now, without having almost 75% of my cash tied into the stock market.  I'm more like 50% now.  That's enough for me.

 

I watched the movie Casino last night.  Other than all the swearing, it was a good movie.  One of the themes of the movie was pretty interesting though.  Once a casino has you there gambling - they want to KEEP you there gambling, because the odds are that the longer you play, the more you stand to lose what you've gained, and more.   One of Wrestlers parting shots to me last year was that, "he already had my money, I just didn't know it yet."  Yes - that's a quote.  It caused me to put a lock down on all my accounts, change all my passwords, invest in Lifelock, and, along with what happened earlier in the year, up the security on my house and shop in Cannon Falls.  I'm not positive what he was referring to.  That's the problem with someone who has made a threat who you really don't know who it is, and just how looney a person may be.  

 

I suspect though, that it was in regard to my playing the futures, which I haven't done, nor plan to do anytime soon.  I've withdrawn my funds from where I traded, and don't see me putting them back.   I, along with most of the rest of you on here, are probably gamblers at heart.  If you weren't, you sure as heck wouldn't be farming.  I see trading futures in connection with farming as "doubling down" on the bet.  Are there ways to make money hedging your crop on the futures?  Sure there is.  Is there an equal or better chance of losing money?   I think so, it's like Casino, the longer you play, the better your odds at losing your investment, and more.  And may that's what our Wrestler friend was referring to with me, that I wouldn't be able to resist the temptation of having money, and would place my bets in the futures market.  He was really giggly when I listened to his advice last year while I was in the hospital, and turned around from a short futures postition to a long one, just when the market tanked.  I don't understand someone's glee at another persons loss, but I guess that was "just the way he rolled".

 

Jen

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JCCWIS
Senior Contributor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

Jen : Have too agree with Roger on crops in our backyard. I have late planted corn within a mile that is knee high on a short person. Alot of acres not fully tasseled and silked..low grade silage at best. Acres showing N shortage...as in loss , not enough applied and / or shallow rooted from being mudded in.

 

 On the other hand...had some acres fully silked on Aug. 1 and looking pretty gooid at this point in time. But these acres will need Oct. 1 or later frost date.

 

 Have never seen such a huge difference in corn crop conditions in the 48 years I have been planting corn !!!!

 

 Weatherwise....We are very dry...been raining all morning. Just checked guage....Wow .3".... Well better than a heavy dew.

 

 John

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

Jen.....question for you......

 

what percentage of your net worth is represented by the Birmingham muni-bonds??

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

Thanks John for the update.  This is the second year in a row for you guys over there.  I know at least this year there are some crops that look OK.  Which is somewhat unlike last year, where really, there was nothing over there.  I saw it raining over there this morning.  It looked like the heavier showers were around Eau Claire.  Hang in there John.  You guys should pick up some more rain this weekend, and into next week.  No frost yet, but I am concerned for you guys with the next full moon in Sept.

 

Jen

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

8%, more or less. The bond has actually done quite well to date (1 year), and where they are trading now if I were to sell the bond would yield me a 15% gain for the year, plus some interest.  If I keep it, it's supposed to pay 5% interest after 2017, until it's called in (paid off) by Birmingham.

 

Hopefully, it all works like it's supposed to.  And I guess it should, unless everybody there decides to desert the city.  

 

Jen 

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

Trust me RJ - what's going on in Detroit with their bondholders is giving me a bit of heartburn.  After looking at my total financial picture, I'm more like 4 - 5% invested in Birmingham.  It's enough.

 

Jen

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

glad it's working out for you....so far!!

 

(I was applying the Bob Brinker test to your position....he says no more than 4% in any one stock or investment)

 

I've broken that rule a few times......so don't take anything I say as preaching!

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 11 Forecast Update

Well - alrighty then.  Like I said - I'm fairly happy with my investments.  Sometimes I think I should have more invested, sometimes less.  So that means I'm probably about right?  Who knows....

 

Jen

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