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Senior Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

From the Weather Department of ECIN -- Your News leader for East Central Indiana -- It's a Beautiful Day here in ECI land !  Currenty73 Degrees and Partly Cloudy with A westerly Breeze at 10 to 15 MPH

 

And heres the extended Forcast from my good friends at the National Weather Service in Indy .

 

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN APR 7 2013

BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED WARMTH BUT ALSO NEARLY
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SAID...HAVE CONTINUED
TO CUT BACK ON POPS A BIT FROM WHAT GUIDANCE PROVIDED AS UPPER
SUPPORT IS OFTEN LACKING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL INVERSION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING QUITE STRONG AT TIMES.

ON TEMPS...CLOUD COVER WILL INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY INTO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ANY SUN BREAKING THROUGH COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S EACH DAY...BUT WITH AMPLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HAVE CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON GUIDANCE
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT SUN APR 7 2013

APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL HAVE TO BE WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WED AND WED NIGHT...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SEVERE WX INDICES INDICATE THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG AND CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN BASED ON PWATS AND QPF
AMOUNTS. SHOWERS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN THE AREA GETS A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIP EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RESUME LATE SUNDAY. CONSALL TEMPS
LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST PART SO DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
INITIALIZATION

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

ECIN,

 

I like your local forecast---what the heck is he/you sayin', though?Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

8-14 updated

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Senior Contributor

Re: 8-14 d weather

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION  
c-x-1 This is a weather man's lingo or jargon.
It is called an Area forecast discussion. Like a nurse or doctor charting a patients condition or prognosis. Yes, it is hard to understand at first but after reading them for a year or so you will get a "feel" for your local weather. My area is updated every 12 hours, more if rapidly changing weather is taking place. They are written by meteorologist from the National Weather Service. Any way, they can neither make the weather nor change the weather just predict the weather.
6PM Wind SE 22MPH Temp 63* Partly cloudy.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TEMPERAMENTAL FOG AND STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMP
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND SUBSEQUENTLY TONIGHT. ENDED UP
ADJUSTING HIGH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALSO DROPPED LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE BASED
ON THIS TREND. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GOOD
SURFACE TO 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING.

WEAK RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA HERALD THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY
TRACKING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AFTER SUNSET AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE DYNAMICS ARE STRONGEST WITH A CLOSED OFF
LOW AT 850 MB.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

PLENTY OF CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND PRECIP
TYPE ALL ON THE TABLE.  PERIOD BEGINS WITH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP
EXITING NERN FORECAST AREA.  CANNOT FIND MUCH IN THE WAY OF
KINEMATIC OR THERMODYNAMIC FORCING MON WITH ATTENTION TURNING TOWARD
WARM FRONT SETTING UP INTO HEART OF IA BY LATE AFTERNOON.  NAM SEEMS
OVERZEALOUS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH NRN EXTENT OF 60F PLUS DEWPOINTS.  EVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
WHICH DEPICTS 60F INTO SRN IA LATE MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING
VEGETATION IS DORMANT AND 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS UPSTREAM INTO
KS/MO/OK/NRN AK DOES NOT SHOW A 60F DEWPOINT YET.  THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...CLOSE TO THE GFS...DOES INDICATE UNCAPPED
1500 J/KG MLCAPES OVER SRN IA BUT THIS WOULD BE WITHOUT LARGER SCALE
FORCING AND REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH.  THIS WOULD ALSO APPEAR TO BE OUR ONLY WINDOW FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION AS MLCAPES/CINS ARE MUCH LOWER/HIGHER RESPECTIVELY
INTO THE WEEK.

HOWEVER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS ELEVATED CAPES
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG SHOULD MOVE INTO IA COINCIDENT WITH SURGE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION.  PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1-1.25 INCHES...K INDICES
RISE INTO THE 30S ALONG WITH 1-6KM SHEAR TO 40-50KTS.  LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOWN...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ELEVATED HAIL STORMS.  THIS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT /PUSHING 99TH PERCENTILE/ WITH WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS TO 10KFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TUE AS WELL BEFORE
EXITING SE TUE NIGHT.  ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS.  EVENT TOTAL QPF VARIES FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS SOUTH AND SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT THIS
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT.  HIGH POPS LOOK TO STAY IN PLACE RIGHT
INTO WED AS SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES AWAY WITH BEST QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY
FOCUSED ON INVERTED TROUGH PASSAGE TUE EVENING WITH MO TRIPLE POINT.

TEMPS NORTH WILL SEE LITTLE REBOUND OR CHANGES TUE INTO WED SOCKED
INTO SOLID 1.5KM MOISTURE AND BRISK NELY WINDS.  MAY EVEN SEE
PERIODS OF SNOW DURING FAVORED NIGHTTIME COOLING...AND AREA WIDE WED
NIGHT INTO THU AS FORCING FINALLY EXITS.  WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMS NORTH...MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS.  FAIR WEATHER
AND COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND A PERIOD OF MS VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
POPS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS
ANOTHER WRN CONUS THROUGH DEEPENS SOMEWHAT LEADING TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS AND SURFACE REFLECTION REACHING IA BY LATE SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS AND QPF WOULD MOST LIKELY
PRODUCE HIGH END WITHIN BANK RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES BASED ON
ENSEMBLE QPF RIVER FORECASTS...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH END SCENARIO COULD
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT A FEW SITES SOUTHEAST.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO GROUND FINALLY THAWING AND SOME DRYING AFTER DECENT MARCH
PRECIP/SNOWMELT EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z

IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO
ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VRF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE BROUGHT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST TAF SITES AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH RAIN THE AREA RECEIVES...LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SKOW
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...SMALL







 
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

good deal Wind, thanks.

 

got a science degree so maybe i can cipher it----------funny, i thought it was ECIN makin' up some techno mumbo jumbo.Smiley Very Happy

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Senior Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

Just received 3/4" hard rain in the small town where I live. Nice rain & a few small pea sized hail. If we can receive that everyday for the next 3, that would make corn planting so much nicer.
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Senior Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

Thank you Wind ! Very good post ! -- Sorry c-x-1 --I thought everybody read the NWS forecast . 

 

c-x-1 - just click on the RED words  if  you don't know what they mean - it will pop up a definition of the short word . 

 

In short for me - there may be a stationary boundary that --MAY dump -- May dump alot of rain ,, maybe ! on us .

 

Looks to be around Weds.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-14 d weather

Got it. I've certainly heard it verbally translated on weather radio............Here's S. Tx. Even this is more legible? triple digits this week...................

 

 

 

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CARVE OUT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL
PERSIST WITH INCREASING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. BROKEN STRATOCU THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN ROCKPORT AND VICTORIA...AND SOME
HIGH CIRRUS WILL SKIRT SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT AND AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS EAST TO
WEST TONIGHT...MORE THAN LAST NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
STRATUS WILL KEEP LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS COMBINED WITH
DEEPENING LOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH TEXAS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND MONDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WARM TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INLAND...WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STATUS QUO FOR THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. STILL EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (BOTH GFS AND ECMWF) SHOW 850 TEMPS
INCREASING TO 25C TUESDAY EVENING. FRONTAL TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH FROM EARLIER RUNS. GFS NOW ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF ECMWF
TIMING...WITH CANADIAN ALSO SIMILAR TO ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON ITS WIDESPREAD PRECIP...BUT
STILL SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE...SHOWING OVER AN INCH OF PRECIP IN SOME
AREAS. DONT HAVE MORE THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. DOESNT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF AN OVERRUNNING ISSUE BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MID LEVEL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH AROUND THE SAME TIME.
TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE MAY
INCREASE CLOUD COVER...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE SLIM AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  85  72  89  72  /   0   0  10  10  10
VICTORIA          66  81  71  84  68  /   0   0  10  10  10
LAREDO            70  98  73 100  71  /   0   0   0  10  10
ALICE             70  91  72  93  72  /   0   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          70  78  71  83  71  /   0   0  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  93  70  97  69  /   0   0   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  88  72  92  73  /   0   0  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       70  81  71  84  72  /   0   0  10  10  10

 

Panhandle:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
651 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

.AVIATION...
WEAK ECHOES INDICATD BY KAMA 88D OVER NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA
ARE NOT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...AND HAVE NOT
YET PRODUCED STRONG SURFACE WINDS BELOW EVAPORATING VIRGA.  WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT.

BOUNDARY SEEN ON KAMA 88D LIES JUST WEST OF KAMA AT THIS TIME...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST SHORTLY...WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ENSUING AT KAMA.  UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KAMA.

BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING BACK AND FORTH...PRODUCING
VARIABILITY IN SURFACE WIND DIRECTION AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING.  DURING EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHEAST...WITH STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
INCREASING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT EXPECTED.

BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z MONDAY...MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON
NORTHEAST SIDE OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IFR CEILINGS AT
KGUY.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH ONLY
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...

JUST A FEW CHANGES MADE TO GOING FORECAST AS CONCERNS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MAINLY THE SAME.

CONCERN #1...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
PROBABLY NOT HAPPENING. TOO MUCH CIN...NOT ENOUGH FORCING. COULD BE
A FEW LIGHT VERY HIGH BASED SHOWERS IN THE OK PANHANDLE BUT T/TD
SPREADS OF 40-50 DEGREES F SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING FROM REACHING
THE GROUND.

CONCERN #2...FOG IN THE ERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR ERN PANHANDLES AS LOW LVL MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

CONCERN #3...WINDS MON AND TUE...
TUE IS DEFINITELY LOOKING LIKE THE WINDIER DAY THOUGH BOTH DAYS MAY
FALL JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

CONCERN #4...COLD FRONT TUE/TUE NIGHT...
MUCH COLDER AIR IS NOW BEING PROGGED BY ALL MODELS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. INHERITED TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK
FOR THE FRONT...WITH IT ENTERING THE CWA TUE MORNING AND LEAVING THE
CWA AROUND SUNSET TUE EVENING. THERE IS STILL JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR
A BIT OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP...ANY OF WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HAVE
DRASTICALLY TRIMMED LOWS TUE NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE
PANHANDLES NOW IN THE TEENS AND 20S BY THU MORNING. RECORD LOWS
COULD BECOME POSSIBLE.

THE WARMUP THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR LATE WEEK MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO OCCUR AS THE LEE SFC TROUGH MAY NOT SET UP UNTIL FRI
AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
TWENTY FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

SIMPSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                51  84  49  62  23 /   5   5  10  10  20
BEAVER OK                  54  83  54  65  23 /  10  10  10  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              46  80  42  46  19 /   5  10  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  53  86  55  63  25 /   5  10  10  10  20
BOYS RANCH TX              51  86  49  58  25 /   5   5  10  10  20
CANYON TX                  51  85  48  64  24 /   5   5  10  10  20
CLARENDON TX               54  86  54  66  28 /   5   5  10  10  20
DALHART TX                 46  82  45  52  20 /   5   5  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  50  83  50  55  23 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                50  84  47  62  23 /   5   0  10  10  20
LIPSCOMB TX                53  83  55  67  26 /  10   5  10  10  20
PAMPA TX                   52  83  52  62  23 /   5   5  10  10  20
SHAMROCK TX                55  85  56  70  30 /   5   5  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              53  87  57  74  33 /   5   5  10  10  20

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Senior Contributor

Re: 8-14 d weather

It's started already. We are doomed. Never gonna rain again. Corn going to 10+ and beans to 20+.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: 8-14 d weather

I was 75% planted on corn last year this date....average start date for last decade has been april 10 for corn acres on this il farm 30 mile south champaign il....soil temp 40 n week of rain with 1 to 3 inches in next 3 days....no hurry here lets see usda fudge numbers when we have another crop failure like last year....all we heard last year this time of year was record acres and trend line yeilds only way we wont run out......guess i was only one who went thru a drought last year...tiles arent running and in these parts this time of year thats and very odd....good luck
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