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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

8 - 19 Weather Update

Good Morning.  Let's start with the last 7 days of precip:

 

 

 

As you recall, the last time I posted here a few days ago, a post was put up about what the Weather Service was showing for potential rainfall in the US.  It showed most of the Midwest receiving a lot of rain, (1-3 inches) and in IA, with predictions for most all of the state to get 2-3 inches, and the southern areas of IA and northern MO getting a frog strangler with 4 - 5 inches being projected.  Well, we got some rain.  A LOT of areas much less than was forcast by the weather service.  I know - it's not Friday yet, but other than light showers the rest of the week, favoring MN and WI, the rest of the Midwest won't receive much more.  And, the totals for IA will pull back from where they show above by Friday, because of rain that they got earlier last week.  I did not see us getting as much rain as the weather service predicted.  I had earlier in the week as you recall, but then pulled back on the amounts that I felt would fall.  With the Jet Stream returning North of the border, we simply didn't have the lifting mechanism in place to produce the rainfall that the Weather Service was predicting.  I didn't have time to save Ehoffs map that was posted up last week to compare with the above,  I wish I had.  Like my maps, they change with the changes in the program that we pasted them from.  I'm sure there is some way to copy them and not have them still attached to the mother program, so they stay as posted.

 

The Weather Service long range forecasts have been unreliable all spring and summer.  Sometimes days they have been better than others, but overall, while I wouldn't give them an "F" for this summer, certainly nothing more than a "C-" or a "D+" is warrented.  The problem is that these forecasts, like the USDA forecasts using maximum figures year after year, are fodder for the bears, and another reason for taking the price of the crop lower, whether or not the event actually happens, and then, when the event doesn't occur, well then we can defer to the NEXT Big event, that surely will happen.  It gets old.  The same rhetoric, year after year.  The same games.  Why wasn't the "huge crop forecast - farmers up to theif ears in corn" in the Wall Street Journal put out months ago?  Maybe in March and April, when all this was predicted anyway?  Like someone said, and I agree with:  to sucker in all the rest of the people who are way late to the party.  From that stand point, the bears have pretty much ran these crops down to where I also think we don't have much farther to go.  They need to let the Wall Street Journal article do it's dirty work, and then we can probably start working higher as the field results start coming in.  From what I saw from around the country this year, as I have said before, i don't think this monster crop is going to be as big as the bears are making it out to be.  I think MT's figures are pretty close, maybe just a bit low, it all depends on what happens in the frost department next month.  

 

Enough ranting - let's look what's going on.  The current Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

A disorganized Jet gets itself together later in the week, and stays in play across much of the Midwest.  Our old buddy, the High out in the Pacific, is still alive and well:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

Most of our weather in the Midwest is still doing what it has done all summer - drop in from Canada.  Here in Cannon Falls, I have to say, most of the crops look very, very good.  There are some fields that got moisture stressed over the last month (our lawn was brown when I got back on Saturday), there are still the drowned out pockets from spring, and some fields of corn are pretty yellow, showing the lack of nitrogen that will show up when the combines rolls.  But, overall, the crops look pretty good.  Coming through Kansas, the corn there coming up I 35 looked pretty dead now.  What's there is there.  THAT will not be a record crop there, nor for NE.  Kansas will be harvesting in the coming weeks.  It was dark when I came through IA and S MN.  I'll comment on those when I head back to OKC on Sunday.

 

Rainfall over the next 10 days will favor WI and MN.  Here in Cannon Falls, we picked up nearly 4 inches of rain on Sunday evening, and a little more last night.  I know it was appreciated by the local farmers.  But the area that got rainfall only covered a 3 county area.  Those of us that got the rain, have a good crop assured.  Those that missed it, not so much.  

 

I'm on frost watch.  Ten days from now, we have this dip in the Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

And we are definitely going to see a cool down across the US as we head into our fall season.  This dip is not a frost scenerio, as the air mass is being modified as it drops south by warmer air in Western Canada.  And, the front isn't dropping quite as far south as it needs to.  The area of freezing temps in Northern Canada is growing larger:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

And the question is, "When will it invade the US?"  I still think the full moon next month is the one to watch.  

 

That's it for today.  The sweet corn I picked yesterday was spectacular.  The guys from Syngenta warned me that once I got a taste of the corn that they were producing, I wouldn't be satisfied with most other sweet corn.  And they were right.   Syngenta BC0805 - it's what's for dinner here today!

 

Jen

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8 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

The Chinese don't know what they are missing..................................Smiley Wink

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famfarmer
Contributor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

Jenny how about some good news for us in northern IL haven't had a rain here since the fourth of July top end is off the corn and beans the smell of freshly mowed grass is just a memory.

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

Sorry famfarmer - there just is non in the forecast for you guys.  The Jet Stream will be staying south of the border the next ten days, and that will help for you guys.  The reality is that the main storm track will be to the North.

 

Ten days from now, the forecast does show this:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

but, it's ten days away, and nearly all these systems look great a week away, and then fizzle by the time they get to the Midwest.  The systems just aren't powerful enough to sustain over a long distance.  And that's still thanks to that High in the Pacific.  It's why I didn't mention it this morning - yeah, it's out there as a possible.  But I need to see more more runs of the Jet Stream forecast and available moisture before I commit on it to a probable.

 

Jen

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capinegro3901115
Veteran Contributor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

famfarmer where are u located in NIL??

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Mike central IA
Veteran Contributor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

Jen-

Thanks for putting these forecasts together, at least when you have bad news you are compassionate about it! I have a feeling you put quite a bit of effort into putting them together-and if you don't it looks like you do, and they are appreciated.

I am not always sure what I am looking at on the maps, but the text is usually written so that I can figure out what you are getting at. The majority of the time you hit it closer than the people that are getting paid substantially better.

famfarmer
Contributor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

Northwest, everything has gone north or south of us the last six weeks.

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NCILL
Frequent Contributor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

I agree! Thank you Jen for all that you contribute. I don't stay up to watch the local weather here anymore. Tom Skilling should be calling you for advice!!!! Wish it was better news for us but it could always be worse! At least crooks sitting behind a desk aren't after the hard earned fruits of my labor...........................................................Wait a minuteWoman Sad

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: 8 - 19 Weather Update

Read an article this spring about an early freeze even down in our neck of the woods. May turn out to be the case, but if it gets this far south we all will be in trouble.
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