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Veteran Advisor

8-2 Weather Update

OK, the bears are are bristled up about this huge rain event coming. I've reviewed the upcoming weather, I'm holding with what I said on the 30th. I see no reason to change what I see in the rain event over the next 6 days. 10 days from now, we have a change in the jet stream that drops a fairly interesting piece of energy over the Midwest. I'm on the I pad right now, hard to cut and paste the weather I want to show you. I'll try and put it out tomorrow.

Jen
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

OK, well, I guess I'm not supposed to sleep tonight.  A friend of mine who usually needs a shoulder to cry on called, just as I got to sleep - didn't answer, and just as I got to sleep - again - called again - din't answer and unplugged phones.  Then, at 11:30, the next door neighbor having a party decided to shoot off fireworks for 1/2 hour.  At least they could have invited me.  I'm tired, in desperate need of sleep, and now I'm POed.

 

Anyway, now that I've vented, here's that jet stream that I was looking at 10 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

But - it will take more than that jet to make it rain.  The Gulf is effectively closed, upper and lower levels.

 

While I'm up doing this, the 30 day and 90 day forecasts:

 

US 30 Day Temperature

 

 

US 90 Day Temperature

 

Alrighty then - I'm going to bed.

 

Jen

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Senior Contributor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

Could you be so kind as to send some of that rain to the Northwest? We are literally burning up out here. 1200 cattle and an entire town in Washington burnt up just a couple days ago. Most things aren't being fully reported because thee are just too many fires. The fire north of Burns, Oregon is almost 400,000 acres. Count your blessings.
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Honored Advisor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

Jen, you being a weather guru what`s your take on weather modification and such (HAARP, Tesla, contrails)?

 

I know the weather is inexplicably goofy, but it always has...10,000 yrs ago I`d be sitting under a 1 mile thick sheet of ice right now on this spot.  The Left is making some coin out of global warming, their solutions involve me giving up my guns and driving around in a Fred Flintstone peddle car.  This morning I caught this guy on Coast-to-Coast talking about a more nefarious cause of climate change.

 

http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/   

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

JamesHH - until that big high pressure system out in the Pacific breaks down, you guys will stay dry. I've spoken of it many times on here for months, and it is affecting all of us here in the US. It's not going away, it seems. I haven't had time to do research on it, I figured by now it would've broken down or been pushed out of its position by something, but it keeps getting pushed and squashed every which way, and stays more or less intact. When I saw it out there and what it was doing to all of our weather, I knew it was a bad deal - and it still is.

Weather modification. The only thing that I can tell you for sure that I do know about, are the airplanes that used (maybe still do) to fly around thunderstorms in western ND cloud seeding to add to the rainfall totals and help stop the damaging hail. As a controller at Minneapolis center, we had to work the aircraft as they maneuvered around the thunderstorm cells at 15 - 25,000 feet. It went on all summer long, anytime there were significant water vapor available and instability in the atmosphere. Beyond that, I don't know and can't say for sure.

That's all I have time for this morning - I'm already behind because of last nights issues. I plan to be on the road by 6 am tomorrow with my 13 hour drive back to OK to do. Talk to you all soon.

Jen
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Frequent Contributor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

This thing says .5 - 4 in alot of the corn belt centered on MO which really doesn't matter that much. 

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

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Senior Contributor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

Jenny,

Just curious what kind of classes you were taking down in Oklahoma?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

We'll see who's right in a few days.  I'm sticking with what I have.  I feel the atmosphere is goinf to be too starved for moisture to have anything like thos kind of rains.  Here's the issue:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

High altitude, we have this large area of High pressure shutting off the Gulf - most of this week.  It is not condusive for thunderstorm development.  This map is not until next Monday.   See that little cut off low over CA?  It could bring them some much needed rain, but it continues up the West Coast and is reincorporated into the Jet Stream.  That cut off Low will not be a recurrance of what we saw this sping bringing the rain to OK and TX.  The closest I see to what NOAA has put out for all that rain is this:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

That doesn't happen till Saturday, and I doubt that that will occur.  The atmosphere is just going to be too dry.  I'll stick with what I wrote on the 30th.  Rainfall over an inch this next week is going to be the exception, not the rule, for 90% of the Midwest. (Interpretation - 90%, and more, of the Midwest will see less than an inch this next week).  THIS IS NOT THE FROG STRANGLER THAT THE BEARS KEEP TOUTING.  

 

Jen 

 

Jen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

I'm not taking classes - I'm teaching them.  I'm an instructor at the Air Traffic Academy, working with our new recruits trying to get them through the testing they need to do before they move on to their assigned facilities throughout the US.  I'm one of the instructors teaching the students on the simulator in our labs to work as a Radar Associate in an Air Traffic Control Center.

 

Jen

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Senior Contributor

Re: 8-2 Weather Update

Oh okay.  Are you a licensed air traffic controller then?  I didn't know that.

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