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Veteran Advisor

8 - 31 Weather Update

I've got a cold, I feel like I'm drowning, and couldn't sleep.  So I thought I would get up for a bit and see what's in store weather wise.

 

For some of our Canadian neighbors, the growing season could be coing to an end around the full moon on Sept 8th:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

Much of ON, MB, and SX could get their first frosts of the season around the full moon.  The US, the way it looks right now, will be spared, although I suspect that low lying areas in MN, WI, and MI could get nipped between the 7th and the 9th of Sept.  The setup was there for a US frost:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

a High dipping into the US out of Canada (the High isn't real powerful, unlike the Low feeding into it), with a Low above it and East of it feeding it with cold air, but, like I said a few days ago, there is just to much warm air in Canada, and the freezing temps in the air mass are going to be modified above freezing before it cause a lot of damage in the US.  But, this is still a few days away.  We'll see what it looks like closer to the full moon.

 

The North Central US looks to remain wet, and it could be a tough harvest coming for MN, IA, WI, and MI, as our same, persistant weather pattern is still in place.  The big High still is in the Pacific off the West Coast, continuing to give them record drought, and a High in the Gulf, still giving the Texas Coast it's persistant Southeast wind and funneling it's way up into the Central US.

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

Have a good Labor Day weekend everyone - I'm going to see if I can get some sleep.  Good Night.

 

Jen

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13 Replies
Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

Are you talking frost in northern on? Looks like we will get a night at almost 50f or slightl below.... Looks like clouds will moderate.

We need this month to go good. If we did hav a local frost, I'm sure basis would go crazy in corn at least . Almost all bean fields still green.. Aphids coming on.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

Farmerguy89 - yes.  The temps have warmed a bit from what they were showing overnight, but Saturday night they are still showing this:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

That puts most of ON in the thirties at least that night, and NE Ontario will probably see it's first freeze.  If it stays cloudy, that will help.  But the High dropping in should clear out the clouds, and winds should be quite light.  Central WI, especially the cranberry bogs and the perenial cold areas by Rhinlander could also see frost next weekend.

 

Jen

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Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

Yeah but we are talking about thunderbay or forest lands freezing and the praries too. A lot of beans/corn is in the south and east of ontario and are well out of bounds

What's affected: late maturing canola/corn silage?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

Farmerguy, this doesn't look to be a killing frost overall - not yet.  It's going to be the first frosts of the season.  Remember, for frost to form, the air temp doesn't have to be below freezing.   But some low spots, and depending on how dry it is up there, could be enough to kill in some areas.  But, this is still a few days away.  Like I said, the forecasts actually warmed a bit overnight.  We'll see what it looks like a few days from now.

 

One of the additional issues, though, from experiences on my own farm, is that once it gets below 40 at night, it seems to take the plant time to get going again.  Growing degree days will be lost on this event, and push the season back for you guys even farther.

 

Jen

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Senior Contributor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

The possibility of a wet fall is starting to be in my thoughts quite a bit.  If the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 hold together it could be a really big concern.  The good news is there appears to be no shortage of Degree Day units in the forecast so at least the crop should dry down decently.  We shall see!

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Honored Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

 

ALERT 1 - Flash Flood Watch

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:00AM CDT MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 01

Event Start: Sunday, August 31, 2014 7:00 PM CDT

Event End: Monday, September 01, 2014 7:00 AM CDT

Location: Areal Flooding

Flood Begin: In Progress

Flood Crest: Unknown

Flood End: Until Further Notice

Flood Severity: Not Applicable

Flood Status: None

Cause: Excessive Rainfall

 

Getting real close to "SO WHAT?"

 

 

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Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

Looked at thunderbay.. Some nights at 7c; usually need 4-5c for frost, but low spots or certain areas could freeze as you say.

If night temps go below 50f for one night you need one day to just recover. Multiple nights below that need longer. This is what your talkin bout when you mention that crops don't grow in the cold.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

Farmerguy89 - Yes, you are right.  Those are the things that I am looking at.  A lot of people tend to think that it's no big deal if it doesn't freeze.  Maybe it isn't.  But on a crop already behind, it sure as heck doesn't help push along the maturity.

 

I'm sure glad I'm not at work today.  This cold is miserable.  I'm not sure where I got it from.  I know that at least one of the instructors last week said that he had used Zicam to try to knock the cold out faster.  We have students here from all over the country, it was one of the things that I worried about taking this job.  Over the last 5 years though, it's not been a real big issue.  I'm always concerned about any kind of sickness.  An infection that carries into the arteries of my heart can cause the crap (hardened plaque on my arteries - ie, hardening of the arteries) in my arteries to break free, causing an instant blockage.  We try not to visit people if we know they have been ill.  My dad doesn't seem to get that my getting ill is dangerous, and when we went to visit him last winter in Arizona, it seemed like he was sick when he talked to me on the phone, but assured me he wasn't.  He was - it's the last time that I had a real bad cold.  People don't seem to understand because I look fine.  They don't see the nitro I take to keep my arteries and blood vessels expanded.  They don't see the blood thinners or the breakdown of my endothelium because of my gene mutation.  I'm not a bubble person, but nor do I look to get exposed to something that can kill me.

 

Jen

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Honored Advisor

Re: 8 - 31 Weather Update

80 mph winds right through central Iowa, heavy rain, few whilly winds. Should increase total bu somehow.

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