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Veteran Advisor

8 - 5 Weather Update

A quick up update this morning.  The most interesting feature is this for 8 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

Notice the big Low pressure system up by Alaska, with a trailing cold front across the Pacific.  These cold fronts would normally come across the Pacific NW, and give the NW rain.  But that persistant High pressure system south of it is going to do what it has done all summer long - it will kill the cold front and deflect it up into Canada.  You see the series of Lows in this snapshot moving Eastward over over Hudson Bay.  These are still problematic for us if we get the right set up with a Jet Stream dropping South into the US this fall.  Right now - still OK.  But it only is going to take one freeze to bring the growing season to an early end.  Will it happen - I don't know.  The possibility still exists.

 

A little less rain in the forecast, again, this morning.  Best shot now is for a week from now:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

That Low over Lake Superior for 10 days from now comes dropping from out of the Artic Ocean.  I still think this is an ominous sign, and needs to be watched, closely, by all trying to make a good decision about marketing grain.  It could be a carry out changer.

 

One more quick thing - the Jet Stream 10 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

It has only a small loop into the US.  If that thing was bigger, along with the Low dropping in from the Artic - well - you know.  Have a great day....

 

Jen

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7 Replies
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Senior Advisor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

With all do respect Jen I've always thought we had a 50% of rain each and every day. I mean it is either going to rain or it isn't. HA HA

Maybe I'm making it to simple. Enjoy your time instructing, sounds like some long hours but that's probably why you make the big bucks. LOL
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Frequent Contributor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

jen what does the weather look like in arizona the next two weeks.  getting ready to put hay down. just wondering too what the rest of the year looks like for arizona.

thanks james

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

Broke - I'm at work driving the jets without my resources. I'll try and check between shifts if I get time - otherwise tonight when I get home at midnight.

Jen
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Frequent Contributor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

thanks

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

jennys,

are you thankin' we get a pretty dense cool air mass encroaching in the 10 day map.

 

looks quite windy with them isobars all quenched together like that

 

thank you.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

C-S-1  We still have a fair amount of warm air in Canada.  Next month will be a different story.   Also, the dip in the Jet Stream forecast is just a small one, it's not the all encompassing jet that drops to the Gulf.  That's the one that's the killer.

 

Jen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 5 Weather Update

Brokefarmer....I would cut it.  Here's the isuue:

 

Whoops - can't do the past here at work.  OK, the issue is a semi permanent Low that is set up over the BAJA and works it's way in AZ.  Right now, the air is pretty dry, but if you wait - even 5 days, that air above you is once again going to saturate, and you're looking at showers for the weekend and continuing into next week.  Cut it.  Today.  Let me know how it works out.

 

Jen

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