Re: Corn Demand
Grain markets have never been left alone, and never will be. It's never been any different. Grain is too important to the stability of societies to 'leave alone'. Globally there is no 'free market' for grain. And there won't be.
On the other hand, how free do you want grain? The idea that 'leaving a market alone' is 'good' and regulating or having policies for a market are 'bad' means one has to come to terms with what Wall St did in the last crash, since it was largely unregulated, and the public was unaware of what it was really doing with money machines in its financial warehouses. Wall St quickly accepted regulation as a price for escaping the monster that it created.
We can't have the equivelant of Wall St's crash in the global food supply system. We cannot allow that to happen. Period. There is no unfettered capitalist system la la land. At least none has found it. Like it or not, China's grain flywheel system of huge inventories and highly subsidized food production does the world a favor by taking out the huge peaks and valleys that would destabilize ag. China is the greatest producer of food in the world and has ramped up production for 7 years in a row even though it is one of the driest countries in the world given it's needs. One production crater year with no oversight - say right now - would put the world in an economic tail spin that could easily be followed by cruelly low prices.
I'm beginning to think most American farmers have lost sight of how well taken care of they have been, and taken too much individual credit for our incredible productivity. WE could be the exact equivelant of Wall St, but we aren't. On the other hand, no stress means no growth. Biologically it is the equivelant of death. But that doesn't justify unimaginable social pain and sacrifice by the innocent.
Re: Corn Demand
pal, china is running out of water on all fronts. when they import grain they, in a sense import water. its cheaper for them to do so rather than find new sources of water. which are scarce. and i question whether they have indeed ramped up grain production for 7 years. only brazil comes to mind in that regard and it hasnt been a straight line shot . nothing in grain is linear. as you say there is production variability every year somewhere. i simply trust the chinese #s less than the usda. i always appreciate your view points, dont always agree, but thats what makes a conversation. my best to all d7
I'm sue you can identify with this
So, I finally decide to pull the trigger on some wheat Frday afternoon. All of a sudden it 'felt right'. Then my wife came home from work early and we were commenting on various things, I turned back to my work, phoned and then found out that I couldn't make the sale @ $7.30 Portland because it was now a few minutes after 4 pm. Just got distracted.
While I'm 'reasonably' confident prices won't tank our situation out here is complicated by a 14 -16 week river closure to replace giant lock gates which are about 50 y.o. Hmmmm. Maybe I'll have to wait it out for the duration, maybe I'll sell Monday ..... or Tuesday ..... or...... .
Re: I'm sue you can identify with this
The locks on the Columbia/Snake are gargantuan. One gate weighs 1000 tns. Other gates are constructed differently, but all are huge - and old. Because of the height of the lifts I guess the pressure on the gates is immense. I think the locks can take as much as 5 - 3,000 tn barges and a tug. Some tows have to be broken up. The dams are 100-200' high, but the transit time for barges in the locks (over 600' long) is about 1/2 hour.
Metal fatigue is the culprit I guess. Up until now they have just done repairs and a shut down of 3-4 weeks in the winter is normal. This time they are talking about fuel shortages and the number of heavy trucks on these two lane highways to bypass some of the blockages.
Re: $8.75 wheat says Citibank
Yes, this fits in to my operations. Citi was 59 in 2000 an nearly that nigh in ~2007. CEO Weil paid himself 1 Billion in 2000- . Offensiv, W Buffett sold out. Toda the stock is about 4$. The bank is not run for shareholder or client interests. OK, their grain analyst could have integrity, more likely he Is chicken, wheat takes off, he “feels” compelled to be bullish vs. providing objective analysis.
World supply is plentiful, aussie situation is exaggerated, net it out and it adds to the bear case.
Yes, wild spec mania could keep it going or some WORSE problem suffices,
No guarantee- net the what mkt is FAT with premia, which someone will collect.
We need 3 boards of trade i/o 1 Paloser