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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

8 - 8 Weather Update

Good Morning!  I got woken up by the motor home rocking with the cold front passage here in OKC.  Wind is gusting over 30, although here we have had very little rain.  Most of it went North of us.

 

As I was puttting out yesterdays weather, the computer models were printing out a change in the Jet Stream.  By next Sunday, 9 days from now, the Jet makes a pretty good dip back into the US:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

As I've said before, if you want to know where it's going to rain, follow the Jet.  Once again, with the jet dropping back now more to the South, rain is back in the forecast, and now will once again be more widespread.  

 

The first chance of rain comes in a couple of days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

Low pressure by Hudson Bay drops a cold front across the US, and connects in with the Lows that continue to form over the Panhandles.  This continues to be the same weather pattern we have seen, and now with the Jet Stream in play, will produce rain.  This first event starting on Sunday is just the beginning of a stormy week.  The main event is still a week away:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

and this one now has all the elements to make this a fairly good rain event.  Most all of the Midwest will get rain out of this system.  

 

The Jet Stream buckle next week will bring in air all the way from the Arctic:

 

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

This is the first cool down in Canada, and will start dropping temps across the Great White North.  No freeze from this event, but, the mechanism is still in place.  Temps in Canada are still too mild, but as these Lows up North continue to form, they will start dropping the Canadian temps, and later this month into next month, will start to allow even more of the cold artic air South.  I still think we are in for an early frost.  The average first frost date for Minneapolis is the first week of October.  It's the full moon of Sept 9th that the northern tier needs to get past.  I still think that the full moon in Sept will bring some frost to the Midwest - but it all depends on what the jet stream does.  It's a month from now, and I think it could be the curtain call for some of the crops.

 

Shaggy - you have more chances of rain coming.  Sunday night, and then the bigger event later in the week should both spark some more showers for you.

 

Broke Farmer in AZ.  You've got 3 more days to get that hay in, then a stormy period for 3-4 days, before the weather once again clears out and should give you another window starting a week from now.

 

We lost 5 of the 18 students in the class that graduated yesterday.  That's the best the classes have done in a while.  One of the students yesterday needed a 97 on the final test to pass.  He got a 91.  A good score - but not good enough.  6 more points anywhere during the course of his training here would've punched his ticket to the facility he was assigned to.   But, for him it's over.  PV's (preformance valuations) are en emotional roller coaster for the students.  We see tears of joy, and tears of grief.  Hopefully, we'll graduate more out of the next one (we graduate classes about every two weeks)   I had one of the male students I was teaching last night break down and cry after a scenerio.  It happens every week, multiple times a week.  This school is so tough on the students.  That's it for today.   I'm going back to bed.....

 

Jen

 

 

 

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4 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 8 Weather Update

One more quick note about the school. Rumor has it that one of the upcoming terminal classes was cancelled, because 19 of the classes 21 students had failed the security back round checks. We have to qualify for a secret clearance. A DWI in this profession - and your off the boards. Do I have any qualms of hopping on a jet liner knowing the state
of our Air Traffic System? Not one. I have a whole new respect of our young people from doing this job. They are very capable.

Jen

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bkadds
Advisor

Re: 8 - 8 Weather Update

Says a lot about people in general when that many fail a background check.
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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: 8 - 8 Weather Update

Sounds like they must all been from 38th Street  at Indy 

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: 8 - 8 Weather Update

Yeah, I've been on and off down here for 5 years, I've never seen it before.  To be 21 - 25, and already have screwed up your life enough to not pass the backround check is pretty sad....

 

Jen

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