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Senior Contributor

880,000,000 a month

Of corn is being used divide that from the 2.7 billion in corn that is left and you end up with 100 million on sept 1. Looks like this old crop will get us till new crop comes in. Lol.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

Quite a bit of difference in quarterly usage each year, and especially in years like this....

 

IF the entire difference in smaller- stox (80 myn bushels) is taken off the next projection for ending stocks, dropping it to 690 myn...

 

then the usage for Q4 will be 2.074 byn   (2.764 byn minus .690 byn== 2.074)

 

that means a monthly usage average of 691 myn.....in reality, the usage for the last six weeks of the quarter will be much, much smaller than the first six weeks of the quarter as wheat becomes available and there might even be some far southern corn working it's way north....and imports may be more of a factor as well....

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Senior Contributor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

   So what are we going to use from sept 1 till the new crop actually comes in. Projected Oct 15 in upper Midwest.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

as an industry we will do a variety of things

 

substitute wheat and ddg's where possible

 

imports

 

new crop from the south

 

slow ethanol production in some areas

 

stimulate new crop harvest with basis and moisture discounts

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Senior Contributor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

Ray, one could be offered a moisture discount but then one would be foolish to try and harvest 30+% corn the end of September. You would take a beating on quality, test weight, etc. I would take my chances on 25% or less by the middle of October and hope for better quality. But if an early frost hits the upper Midwest all bets are of here. Could start sounding like 93....40-40-40.....MikeM
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

Nobody harvesting 30% moisture corn is doing it to put in a bin and store it

 

It's going right to a mill...and wet mills can handle moisture much better than dry mills and feeding operations

 

You still going to pass that up if basis is +50Z and it's shrink only on the drying??

 

Talk to your farming friends about what Gold Eagle did back in 1996

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Senior Contributor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

Ray, it's along time till harvest but I don't see any of us here able to take advantage of a scenario like that. Our corn will barely be harvestable till mid October. Those early season specials will probably be gone by then but you are correct..I don't want to try and store corn that comes out with poor quality and that will tank any positive basis opportunities.....MikeM
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Honored Advisor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

Just took this pict this afternoon. The corn is rolling and I do not think the weeds did this field any good. Not sure the farmer will need the nest of 36 ft bins in the background. This field is the exception rather than the rule, BUT it is out there and counts as prime yielding acres.

 

 

ResizedImage_1372623808259.jpg

 

It is or should be just about waist high. Can you say early harvest?

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Senior Contributor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

Were is all this early harvested corn going to come from only 2% was planted by may1. We will be lucky to have 30% corn by oct 15.
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Senior Advisor

Re: 880,000,000 a month

With the temp of  79 dgress in July 1st  - heat units are where  ? 

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