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Veteran Advisor

9 - 14 Weather Forecast

Morning Guys.  Cat425 said it right - we are devouring each other.  The woulda, shoulda, coulda crap needs to stop.  There is no point in dredging it up.  The fact is, that you guys that made the multiyear sales before this big push the last 7 years lost money.  Did you make back this year what you lost when you did multiyear sales with the big price rally?  Oh, you knew we were going to have the big rally, so you didn't do multi-year sales thennnnnn.  Whatever.  

 

In my book, those that need the crops know that farmers are only 20% (or so) sold on this years crop.  Remember what someone knowledgable of how the exchange works said a while back - "farmers always fall for the 'sky is falling' routine."   It didn't work very well last year - a lot of farmers help crop back from the market, and we got a nice dollar push in the market into spring.  This year, it seems that those who trade this market want to make a point of, again, driving this market as low as they possibly can.  I don't think that now is the time to panic, and add to the selling.  "But Jen, what if the market goes lower?  I'm already losing money where we are.  What choices do I really have?"   We need to face that fact that we have tied ourselves to a market structure, that has more money than we have, and are able to drive this market to extremes.  That's how they make their money.  You older guys on here know o  my less than enthusiastic way that our markets are traded on the "board".  It's no longer a price discovery tool.  Maybe it never was, but it certainly is not now.  You always need to keep that in mind.  These guys on here saying "Sell, sell, sell"  when prices are below cost of production are trying to get you to do just that - so they can profit from your fear.  The elevators need the bushels you have in your bin, because those bushels are already also probably sold, and they need to ship them to where ever they are going.   The long and the short of it - you need to make the marketing decisions that you are comfortable with, keeping in mind that we have a large marketing plan devoted to getting grain away from you as cheaply as they can.  And they DO work together, is a media blitz to make the sky look like it's going to fall.  On here, you don't know who is who and working for what purpose.  Some we can tell, others it's more difficult.  If this site was farmer to farmer, and only farmers - proven farmers - were allowed on the site, I don't think we would have the slams and the back biting here that we have now.   We have a lot of people that have recently come on the site, and it seems their purpose in here it to stir things up and to p-ss people off.  Maybe they just need to be ignored.

 

Let's get to the weather - our current Jet Stream:

 

 10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

Over the next 10 days, the Jet once again retreats back up into Canada, and the risk now for additional crop damage from frost has been reduced because of it.  We are very furtunate that we had a lot of saturated ground around the Midwest.  If we hadn't, this last frost scenerio wouldve been a whole lot different.  Our temps would've been able to dip probably into the lower 20's over much of the Midwest, and we would've had a huge disaster on our hands.  Disaster was averted because of all the excess moisture.  It helped modify the air mass, and kept us just enough warmer to avert what could have been.

 

Ontario and Quebec have a weeks worth of frosty nights coming.  It seems that up there the only thing that is going to save the crops is Lake Effect from the Great Lakes.  But most places will see the growing season ending this week up North of the border.

 

Our next rain system of consequence comes across the Midwest next weekend:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

but with the Jet Stream moving back into Canada, is not forecast to be the frog strangler now that it was looking like a few days ago.  

 

Out West, we are trying to get a front to come ashore, and these are getting closer and closer to making that happen.  This front could make it into WA and OR, we'll have to give it a few more days to see how much more it gets beat up.  

 

I've really been trying to avoid the name calling on here.  Sometimes it gets hard when you see someone opening up an opportunity, and knowing that I shouldn't take it.  Like the Curly, Larry, and Moe thing below.  I was going to make a comment about being Curly, Larry, and Moe all rolled into one goofball package.  But I didn't - Did I?

 

Smiley Happy  Jen

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Veteran Contributor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

"It didnt work very well last year-a lot of farmers help crop back from the market and we got a dollar push in the market in the spring"

monthly closes last yr 1-13=740.50  2-13=703.50  3-13= 695.25  4-13=650  5-13= 662  6-13=547.25  7-13=499  8-13=482  9-13=441.50  10-13=428.25  11-13=424.50 and 12-13=422.

 

Do you really think most farmers sold "dollar rally into spring"??  Last yr corn down 39.6% for the year. Right now 2014 corn is down 24.8% for the year. This year corn, 2014 , many farmers didnt price. Its going to hang over this market for a long time. Question will they sell a 40 cent bounce or hold for 4.50- and then hold for 5. time will tell

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Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

When Jen post I read the first blah blah blah then zone out because it's too long
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

That's OK VR.  I'd take a shot here but I'm not going to.  If you don't want to read it, then don't.  I'm not forcing you to read what I write...and maybe it's better if you don't.  Smiley Wink

 

Jen

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Senior Advisor

Why is this important enough to post ???

Why does your mis-shapen ego compulsively force you to post that you'd rather not read something? WHY would anyone care ??? WHY would YOU care?

 

I generally skip your posts because you seldom contribute or add anything to a discussion. Unfortunately I thought this last post might be a topic you could conceivably make a constructive observation. But no. Just another petty, unnecessary slam that could only be worth the energy if a wounded and definitely sociopathic ego propelled it. I certainly won't make the same mistake again. Sorry I made this one.

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Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

I think vr is right... It could be shorter. I've always just mainly skimmed/read half... In university we were taught to get to the point in as little sentences as possible or as few Words as possible. That's why sometimes I post one sentence or one word: that's all you need to hear to make you understand what you need to know.

My experience with essays and the like has always been that less is more... Explain complex things to your help in too many words and they glaze over... Really get to the point in 30 seconds or less and they don't have to ask you questions a million times

But jenny... You are asking for a ceasefire, and then you take shots... You can't do that and expect a ceasefire
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

Oh - I never declared a cease fire.  Name calling is uncalled for.  I try not to do that.  Like, I haven't called anyone an idiot, even if they probably deserved it.  People can post what they want.  But I have a hard time with people that are posting what they really didn't see in an attempt to sway the market.

 

As far as the length of the post, it depends on what is happening, and what all else is going on.  In todays case, I added in events here on the site, and some additional marketing stuff, that made it bigger.  Also, if I do something for an individual, it will make the post longer.   And, on top of that, I got grief from the home front because we had planned for a walk today and some shopping.  And, I also got grief for signing up for 2 doubles, Monday and Tuesday this week, because of concerns for my health.  I only have a couple weeks left down here, then it's back home for 5 weeks to finish garden harvest (hopefully, it hasn't frozen to badly - the tomatoes were toast anyway), do a couple of improvements on the motorhome (recore the radiator & 3 solar panels for the roof) before we head back here for the winter.  And, I never went to college - I would have liked to, but that's the way it is.  I did however, in 8th grade, score in the top 2% in the nation in science and math on those tests that all 8th graders take.  I lived with my grand parents that were old school, and thye didn't really care what I did, good or bad, as long as I didn't get in trouble that required them to do something - and of course, I was there to do the chores.  But yet, I landed a career that put me in the top 5% or so of wage earners in this country.  I don't need to work anymore.  But I sure enjoy what I am doing, which is why I do it.  And, again, here we are, with another long post, and, I'm getting grief again from behind.  I can't win....

 

Jen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

getting grief from behind???

 

what - are you wearing a hospital gown?   Smiley Very Happy Smiley Very Happy Smiley Very Happy

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Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

Take a break
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Veteran Advisor

Re: 9 - 14 Weather Forecast

stocks take a fall - minus 7 handles

 

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