Morning Guys. Cat425 said it right - we are devouring each other. The woulda, shoulda, coulda crap needs to stop. There is no point in dredging it up. The fact is, that you guys that made the multiyear sales before this big push the last 7 years lost money. Did you make back this year what you lost when you did multiyear sales with the big price rally? Oh, you knew we were going to have the big rally, so you didn't do multi-year sales thennnnnn. Whatever.
In my book, those that need the crops know that farmers are only 20% (or so) sold on this years crop. Remember what someone knowledgable of how the exchange works said a while back - "farmers always fall for the 'sky is falling' routine." It didn't work very well last year - a lot of farmers help crop back from the market, and we got a nice dollar push in the market into spring. This year, it seems that those who trade this market want to make a point of, again, driving this market as low as they possibly can. I don't think that now is the time to panic, and add to the selling. "But Jen, what if the market goes lower? I'm already losing money where we are. What choices do I really have?" We need to face that fact that we have tied ourselves to a market structure, that has more money than we have, and are able to drive this market to extremes. That's how they make their money. You older guys on here know o my less than enthusiastic way that our markets are traded on the "board". It's no longer a price discovery tool. Maybe it never was, but it certainly is not now. You always need to keep that in mind. These guys on here saying "Sell, sell, sell" when prices are below cost of production are trying to get you to do just that - so they can profit from your fear. The elevators need the bushels you have in your bin, because those bushels are already also probably sold, and they need to ship them to where ever they are going. The long and the short of it - you need to make the marketing decisions that you are comfortable with, keeping in mind that we have a large marketing plan devoted to getting grain away from you as cheaply as they can. And they DO work together, is a media blitz to make the sky look like it's going to fall. On here, you don't know who is who and working for what purpose. Some we can tell, others it's more difficult. If this site was farmer to farmer, and only farmers - proven farmers - were allowed on the site, I don't think we would have the slams and the back biting here that we have now. We have a lot of people that have recently come on the site, and it seems their purpose in here it to stir things up and to p-ss people off. Maybe they just need to be ignored.
Let's get to the weather - our current Jet Stream:
Over the next 10 days, the Jet once again retreats back up into Canada, and the risk now for additional crop damage from frost has been reduced because of it. We are very furtunate that we had a lot of saturated ground around the Midwest. If we hadn't, this last frost scenerio wouldve been a whole lot different. Our temps would've been able to dip probably into the lower 20's over much of the Midwest, and we would've had a huge disaster on our hands. Disaster was averted because of all the excess moisture. It helped modify the air mass, and kept us just enough warmer to avert what could have been.
Ontario and Quebec have a weeks worth of frosty nights coming. It seems that up there the only thing that is going to save the crops is Lake Effect from the Great Lakes. But most places will see the growing season ending this week up North of the border.
Our next rain system of consequence comes across the Midwest next weekend:
but with the Jet Stream moving back into Canada, is not forecast to be the frog strangler now that it was looking like a few days ago.
Out West, we are trying to get a front to come ashore, and these are getting closer and closer to making that happen. This front could make it into WA and OR, we'll have to give it a few more days to see how much more it gets beat up.
I've really been trying to avoid the name calling on here. Sometimes it gets hard when you see someone opening up an opportunity, and knowing that I shouldn't take it. Like the Curly, Larry, and Moe thing below. I was going to make a comment about being Curly, Larry, and Moe all rolled into one goofball package. But I didn't - Did I?
🙂 Jen
getting grief from behind???
what - are you wearing a hospital gown? 
