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Veteran Advisor

9 - 23 Weather Update

Good Evening.   Let's start with the 6 - 10 day forecasts


140923 6-10.jpg




and the 8 - 14 day forecasts:


140923 8-14 T.jpg


140923 8-14 M.jpg


Both of these forecasts, especially the 6 - 10 day, show a lot of precip coming into the Midwest.  Let's look at what's going on.  Our current Jet Stream: 

 140923 JS1.jpg


And 6 days from now:

140923 JS2.jpg



I spoke before about the formation of a cutoff low, and this is what the NWS (National Weather Service) is figuring is going to create the rainfall for the Midwest.  The day after this map, the cutoff low gets reincorporated into the Jet Stream, and is not a the factor that the NWS sees.  Additionally, the cutoff low over the Gulf at the Jet Stream levels pushes the upper level moisture to the East - helping keep the Midwest dryer.  The Jet however does remain in play the next 10 days over the central US, but this is mostly a West to East flow in the 6 - 10 and the 8 - 14 day period.


Low Level, our moisture supply to the Midwest looks like this (in 6 days):

140923 LLW-1.jpg

We don't have the water vapor supply to the Midwest that we have had all summer. Moisture coming off the Gulf is being blown inland.   This air mass gets modified as it blows over land, and saps much of the moisture out of the air.


In my opinion, once again the NWS misses this one.  There could be some showers, but nothing that shows me things will be getting much wetter than they are now, and most of the moisture that does fall is going to be west of the Western MN border and South along the multiple state dividing line to OK.


6 day Low Level Fronts & Pressure Systems:

140923 MF-1.jpg


Here again, I think the NWS is figuring that the Low over Montana is going to develop into the Midwest, but I see it moving as forecast - into Canada.  It's what has happened most of the summer.   In 8 days, the maps show this:


140923 LLW-2.jpg 


a Cold Front drops into the Central US from the Low that moves into Canada, and, again, although it produces some showers, it's mostly in the 1/4 inch range, except over IA, which could pick up 1/2 to and inch of precip in some areas.  


To sum up.  The next 6 -10 days, there will be some occasional light showers over the US, but no frog stanglers, and although it may slow the bean harvest, it should have little affect on the corn.  Again, these maps will stay now as I have them posted, and we can refer back to them several days from now and see what is happening.   I had a double last night, they wanted me to work a double tonight that I said no to, and I have a double shift tomorrow.  I'm REALLY looking forward to getting out of here in Friday for a month.    I'm tired, and going to bed.   Goodnight.



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3 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: 9 - 23 Weather Update

Thanks for the update Jenny.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: 9 - 23 Weather Update

Citifarmer, did you pull the trigger on the corn calls you referred to on the other site? I'm thinking of trying it. My email is good if you want to discuss privately. Thanks.

Thanks for taking the time Jen.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: 9 - 23 Weather Update

WC yes, I did buy these to cover 100% of my corn Revenue Insurance bushels as I felt it was a realistic cost to potential reward situation.  We shall see how this plays out. 


I could not find your e-mail but mine is good as well.  I would be happy to visit with you.

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