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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

92% of what, planted?

This is interesting from David Kruse about how USDA figures planting intentions.  Apparently if a farmer intends to plant 300 acres on April 1, that`s 300 acres, on June 1  200 acres of the 300 are planted but that week, but he give up then he`s 100% planted.  So when it was said "93 million acres of corn!!" and "92% planted!!" you can`t say "Well, 85.5 million acres of corn was planted 93mil x 92%" might be considerably less than 85.5 mill acres and be still called "92% done".   Maybe you guys knew this, but it was news to me. 


Then Kruse says models of wet years by Iowa State of 1983,93 and 95 and using those similar years, the national corn yield will beeee....hold on to your hats....135 bushel per acre...7 bucks here we come especially if the National Weather Service forecast is correct.  


Here you go listen to it yourself.   


I`ll tell you one thing, I`m not selling any new crop, not just because i`m greedy, but if it`s a cool wet summer, I might not be able to honor my contracts.

2 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: 92% of what, planted?

It's just a good thing that we have USDA's large carryover numbers of grain.

There are folks that are hoping and praying that it is really in bins.........and not just on paper.

Frequent Contributor

Re: 92% of what, planted?

The only thing I know is that if your bins are full of grain you may want to leave it there for a little while. Even if the criminals on the CBOT keep the prices low buy selling short.  Your local basses could become quite positive when the end users need grain then the people that actually have it well make some money. Not some short selling trader.

One thing we keep forgetting is that the main goal of all market traders is price destabilization. The bigger the waves the more they make. If the price of corn froze at $5.00 for a year they would all starve. 

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