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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

92 % planted.

The USDA says that 92% of the corn has been planted as of 6/16.  I doubt if any more significant amount will be planted. 

  So, 92% of 92.6 million is 85.2 million, even assuming the customary 92% is grain (which is dubious considering the amount of late planting) then that's 78.3 million for grain.

   78.3 million times 166 is 13 billion bushel.  But most of us think that yield still needs to come down more so a 12 billion bushel crop is easily possible. 

  If a 10 billion crop was worth $8/bu (2012/2013) then a 12 billion bushel crop ought to be worth $5, right?

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4 Replies
illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: 92 % planted.

5$?...7$

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: 92 % planted.

I think "this" year of all years, the late planted corn was a hail Mary feed needs planting.  So far it`s a poor haying year and we`re coming out of a hay deficit year, so silage is what is in mind for a lot of this late planted corn.  Also since there`s a better crop revenue assurance guarantee, if you`re going to drag a planter through the mud for insurance purposes, might as well do it for a $600/a possible payout than a $400/a  possible bean payout.  In other words not exactly above tend yield potential, also possible higher percentage of corn planted with no intention of it going on the market as #2 corn.

 

There`s a retired elevator manager that also farms, shuts off  corn planting on the 25th of May, because he`s figured economically grain qualitywise late corn doesn`t pay with all the corn he`s seen coming over his scales for many years, low TW, low yield, high moist ect.   But of course everything he has goes directly to town off the combine.  

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rawhide
Advisor

Re: 92 % planted.

somebody really needs to look out of the window when they fly over Indiana and Ohio

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rrfarms24
Contributor

Re: 92 % planted.

No doubt about that where I am in northwest Ohio all you would see is water and weeds I’ve had over 6 inches since Saturday now and they’re still calling for an inch plus the next 2 days each.. the 400 acres of beans we had planted are definitely half gone now easily and we have zero corn in what a year 🤦‍♂️ It’s over with here no matter what happens guys will be lucky to get the wheat off and I’m sure it’s trash now 

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