A 12-month Rally For Corn, Soybeans?

[marketeye]

Tighten your belt, this rally ride could get wild. You might find it interesting that history supports much higher markets ahead.

Full story:  History Backs Way More Upside For Farm Markets

What say you? And, does your grain marketing plan allow for tweaks and adjustments if this baby plays out?

Mike

[hardnox]

Let 'er happen, cap'n.

Sounds like a wonderful time to be spending a little to keep ratcheting a floor up under rising prices. Or catching them if they fall.

For grains, with few problems so far in the N. Hemisphere, probably still depends on weather and so far pretty much OK. Odds favor at least a scare or two before it is in the bin.

Another reason for a floor, if it is needs further justification, is what seems to be an elevated level of macro risk.

[roarintiger1]

Well gee whiz........It sounds like now is the time to head to the neighbor's farm and make an offer to buy it.      

[hardnox]

Reminds me of the '95-'96 episode when China suddenly entered the corn market in a huge way (
and then vanished, at times being a net seller, for the next decade).

Purdue used to have a winter ag forum and they'd give an hour or so for the private advisors to give their spiels. It sort of got into a contest to see who could be the most bullish- like "if every one of those billion chinamen ate a grain of corn, we wouldn't have any to feed the hogs" and such.

I was sitting with a friend and in the middle of it a farmer in front of us got up and left. My friend says "I bet he's going out to call and up all his rent bids."

[westernia80]

WTF 3 months ago it was "these markets are running right into the ground" or "we are just too overpriced to get sales" and now we are going up for a year?  I hope that is true, but it is really getting hard to listen to anyone with market "knowlege" these days.

[sw363535]

Ya ///////// hate that bullish rhetoric....Doom and gloom is the big story.....

But did you know????   That the grain markets have historically risen since the 1930's ....... even though production has also risen from 1925 to present day...

Doesn't that say that there are more up days than down days over the long term...  🙂

Always interesting to see what the individual expects, predicts, gets excited about,  and occasionally "worries" about.

[hardnox]

Yes, grains trend higher over time but in a stairstep fashion.

The end to trade in a trading range for the better part of a 30 year cycle and then jump into a new range and trade there for another 30 year cycle.

The bottom of the new range tends to roughly correspond with what were relatively high prices in the old range. The old cycle high tends to become the new top (OC corn took its out in '96 but that was the HTA squeeze thing, new crop never did).

So say roughly mid 3s to 8 in corn, mid 8s to 16 in beans, wheat, who knows- mid 4s to something, I guess.

Of course the government has something to do with the bottoms of the ranges, too. Corn would have probably gone a lot lower in the 80s in a free market and would have cured itself quicker- by putting most the corn farmers out of business.

[illinifarmer]

Exactly, never listen to the BS these guys trade on pure speculation then when they're wrong always an exscuse. 36 years ago in March 1980 corn was trading around 3+ so as far as the progression I would say there has been minimal over the last 30 years. Up and down but relatively the same which doesn't say much as far as the progression on production costs up 500%. Didn't slow these crooks down on the bean profits this Friday absolutely no reason for a down turn other then personal profit cleanup for the weekend everybody is so used to it now it is not even mentioned sad sad sad.

[illinifarmer]

On another note remember two months ago sell sell sell the highs are in back in March. Whoops what's a few billion in mistaken sales who pays that F up. Oh wait just the farmers not so much as a job was lost I really want that position

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Well, I sold way too much way too early, so I have nothing to brag about in marketing this year.  My plan is to ride it out.  It went up and it will go down someday.

It is interesting that historical studies only look at the surface but not at what makes up the trend.  Specifically, where were funds in the 80s?  Non-existent.  So, how can something that happened in the '80''s be compared with something that is happening with an entirely different set of players?

What's different?

ethanol

funds

South America

electronic trading

Most of you readers can add many more things are change over time, yet we pretend we can look in a rear-view mirror and predict the future.