A 190 yield is a real possibility now

[timetippingpt]

I always like to think of yields as a min/max. With the planting dates and conditions being perfect this year, it seemed safe to assume a 190/150 range to start with. As the year has progressed and the entire eastern belt is fantastic, the low end probably moved up to 160. Now with rain and cool  temps in IA/SD/MN at pollination, a 190 is clearly possible if not likely. 

The OH and IN crops are simply perfect, put OH in at 195, IN at 205, IL and IA at 200 or so, MI at 190, KY at 190, MO at 190, MN might be average but they have a pretty great average, give them a 185.  So, almost regardless of how bad ND is, a 190 is possible. 

A few things could still screw it up of course, like widespread flooding, or another historic thunderstorm that blows the house down.    jmo 

[BA Deere]

Hate to say it, but you could be right.  With hybrids these days, any ol` soil that holds up a plant has at least a 200 potential. I think there`ll be a "test weight debate", Pro Farmer Tour is going to be paid attention to.  On acre side could be more silage chopping because of short hay.

[wrightcattle]

Let's see IF things go 160 first. 

I don't think the average is going to be that great this year.  

Dakotas suck so does Minnesota. 

Rain and cool temps showed up to late for a bunch of corn... Some beans too. 

Whatever 180 X 80mill acres amounts to might be possible say 13.8 to  14.4billion bu Maybe. 

[sdholloway56]

Now meaning first these forecasts must prove out for breadth of coverage.

But yes, I was thinking of posting something to that effect but figured the bois would just think I was trying to antagonize them, which would be partially true.

Way early on beans but heap big potential there, too.

[lsc76cat]

A 190/150 range is pretty wide open.  Always get a chuckle this year when I hear someone refer to great planting conditions this year.  Dakota and MN were cold and parts of SCMN were wet too.  We were almost a week behind our usual date and probably should have waited another week. 

[BA Deere]

Yes, backyarditis is a 2 way street, I know if you`re a eastern I state you`re dancing a jig.  Then on the flip side the western cornbelt was supposed to be "burning up", you take a windshield tour and it is/was rolled, maybe a little on the short side, but green and alive.  Perhaps "2012" was the last time that genetics were severely affected by a drought?   I have "test farms" I drive by that have historically suffered badly in a drought as my baseline to what to expect.  And this year they hung in much better than years past.  There are farms that 3 times in the 1980s they disked it up on a year like this.   Corn handles extreme weather just night and day better these days.  

It seems this super early planting isn`t all it`s cracked up to be either.  Test plots, where they want to show off aren`t the first planted.  If you want to chase that last 5-10 bushel there are other things you can do without risking replanting.

[sdholloway56]

I do think a record yield is becoming more likely but I'm not going up to super boomer numbers just yet.

Looking out as far as the eye can reasonably see, the NW 20% looks iffy and the next 20% in, spotty. If the full expanse of coverage hits in the next 7 days, maybe 15 or less on both.

BTW, I've been wrong before but recall in the recent soybean record year that everyone was poormouthing the beans and I looked at the excellent rain in early Aug and the forecast and said- 52?- which at the time was greeted with derision.

Dang lyin' bureacrats at USDA backed off in the Jan report and came in at 51.9.

It was definitely a conspiracy.

[sdholloway56]

Current guidance puts a bullseye on the driest part of IA later in the week. Waterloo-CR-Dubuque etc.

That would be big.

[BA Deere]

The better half of this supply & demand rally has been the demand half.   Now, pre-pollination we seem comfortable comfortable with the supply.  So anything below a 190 bushel yield national yield will be extremely bullish.  Every bushel is essential to feed this demand.

[roarintiger1]

The bushels from trend yield to 190 might be mighty hard to come by.