A 190 yield is a real possibility now

[sdholloway56]

Historical note: 1995-6 was also a demand rally.

[sdholloway56]

FWIW, 7 day QPF looks more like the 15%, or less, scenario. We'll see.

p168i.gif (800×561) (noaa.gov)

[popspoppe]

Talk about a real step backwards. Its been 17 years since the US was able to produce 190+ bushel per acre corn. A lot of this new fangled stuff does not pan out all that great. Between 1992 and 2004 we produced corn with national average yields over 190 bushels 3 times in a 12 year period. Have not been able to do it since. 

[rayjenkins]

Source for your data??

[wrightcattle]

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@roarintiger1 wrote:

The bushels from trend yield to 190 might be mighty hard to come by. 

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Thee top of realistic this year. 

How many acres of corn will be harvested for grain? 

83 mill.  85 Mill? Guess we'll see. ( or USDA will say whatever it supposedly is.   LoL. )

[sw363535]

Crops looked better coming back across kansas yesterday.... the rows that came up late are trying to catch up.  Issues will be in pollination but so far the crop is green until the heat comes back.

But it continues to be obvious that corn acres are down, in central and western ks.  Grain sorghum acres came back in response to prices higher than corn.  

[wrightcattle]

Milo is likely worth a lot to places like China.... More than corn. 

There's some mill qualities that corn lacks. 

Regardless there's a lot of season left to make or break the crops yet.. 

[bruce MN]

I don’t have your data so you are one up on me/us on that but when I read this my immediate first thought was the addition of highly marginal acres that timed out well weather wise that are A) only marginally producing yet B) still in production, simply and obviously because of crop insurance.

No?

[timetippingpt]

Great insight Bruce, but with the lower planted acreage numbers, especially if you look at the state data, there just was not a huge bump in acres planted to get insurance. Surely some, but hard to say how many, and there is always a bit of slippage in the numbers right? I mean if they are within 2% it is really pretty darn good.... but 2% = almost 2 mil acres, which is kind of a big deal this year. 

As usual, the margin of error is greater than the carryout 🙂

[WCMO]