A 190 yield is a real possibility now

[BA Deere]

I don`t hang my hat on "good/excellent" ratings, but Chip Flory pointed out last yr it was 70% G/E and we got 172.  So, this yr it`s 60% G/E and we`re gonna get 178?  ....pardon me 190?    

Don`t get me wrong, one yr we`ll have a 10-15 bushel jump in national yield, but this yr we`d need those weekly 1.5" rains and cooler than 70° nights...the stars would have to line up.  They still could, but most every other yr the subsoil moisture would be a buffer.  This year, you miss a week or 2 of 1.5" rain and if you come back from a vacation you`ll likely be sick.

[wrightcattle]

It'll take some to beat 170. MO. 

It'll take more to beat 85 mill harvested for grain. 

Gonna be a lot of cow chow silage. 

[sdholloway56]

Very few people who fill out the USDA weekly questionaire have much agronomic knowledge. They know what they hear- sorta like watching this site.

2 week ago there was a lot of reason for concern. Hard to go from that to otherwise if you don't know just how critical those rains were at that point.

But USDA IS LYING!!!!! only goes one way.

[BA Deere]

Driving through the country, I would say "it`s 90% good/excellent" .  However, the corn is just entering the reproductive stages.  During the vegetative  stages there were some tough days, V-5 is ear size determination.   Contractors report "water in the hole at 15 feet",   corn roots only go down 5 feet.  But we were burning up and got 1.5" couple weeks ago at the literal last minute, and it perked up, since then maybe 2" in 1/4"  1/2"  occasions.  The corn is 8 foot high, dark green brace roots to flag leaf , tremendous stand. 

Yes, if you drive by "250 here, 275 there and that one might go 300"  and "IF" no excessive heat and continued 1.5" weekly rains 90% will be over 200 and some 250.  Being as the subsoil is dry, "IF" it is ideal, then we could have a shot at 190 national.  Where as other years, the subsoil band would adjust for the out of tune rain/singer. 

[wrightcattle]

2 much heat and dry early. 

2 rows of kernels per ear short. 

Shallow kernel depth and a lot of tip back. 

You won't make that back til next year... Maybe. 

Good Luck. 

[sw363535]

I like the back yard as well.  I have noted before that the high plains fringe and the western valleys, south delta, Texas etc (the fringe) have produced 40 to 50 % of the 13 or 14 billion bushels..... For that to change and the yield of the corn belt to be a determining factor, acres on the fringe have to diminish.  If they do diminish by 10 m acres then yields will be higher  per acre on average than what they might have been.  But where does that take the total bushels raised? (maybe to a disappointing 190 bu/acre.)

If acres have not dropped significantly, the drought in the west and northern plains, as well as the diminishing water supply in the western plains and sw plains will be strong factors..... and the average yield will have a hard time reaching the trend line of 170-172.  

Factor in a dismal yield in Brazil and carry continues down.  Even if the corn belt finishes in the +190 yield.

Factors we know......irrigation water continues to diminish, The west is a loss, ............. it should be a good year to live in Indiana and Ohio...... a nice improvement for them.

[Hobbyfarmer]

On the 190 thing this year.

I will take the under.*

* now if they fiddle the numbers down by not counting chopped acres, hailed out acres, flooded out acres, acres zeroed out due to drought etc, acres planted on Monday, Wed, Fri, and Sat till noon in the fringe areas, then maybe they can get any desired number they choose...

Going to take quite a rain Wed/Thursday in the drought areas to keep them going next week and in the running for a grain harvest.

[wrightcattle]

appear to show promise this year in spots too. 

[BA Deere]

For all the "drought busting" rain we`ve supposedly had, the guy 5 miles down the road on the sand flats is irrigating his beans.

[timetippingpt]

"Now with rain and cool  temps in IA/SD/MN at pollination, a 190 is clearly possible if not likely." 

Of course, that was predicated on the idea that the ridge had moved west and wouldn't be coming back. It seems the latest runs have it coming back in a big way in late July. A very unusual thing to have happen. That clearly could knock the NW 1/3 of the crop in the teeth at the wrong time. With today's rains out that way, many will get it pollinated in good shape. Heat will just race it to maturity and cause a lot of tip back and short kernels. I can't ever remember a year that has been so slanted in favor of the east, and so rough on the west. I remember 1983 being the opposite with NE having great crops, but not east up west down like this year.

Kind of regardless, we still have a few million missing acres. The east is going to be great which makes hard to crash the national average. So, maybe trend is the minimum at this point and the upside will be determined by IF the heat invades MN/SD/ND/IA in late July. The one thing to remember is that the 8-14 day forecast is always wrong, so it might still be just barely ok in the NW1/3 of the belt. 🙂

At a 180 things are tight enough to make for some nice volatility this winter, but likely loose enough to give funds concern about holding their huge longs going into harvest. By next year the world catches up and supply exceeds demand again is how it usually works out.