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Senior Contributor

A USDA Crop Conditions wildcard -- from Elwynn Taylor

Was just chatting with Elwynn Taylor about today's reports and the notion that this high pressure system swirling around the western half of the U.S. is the biggest potential factor to a shift crop conditions and prices as a result, and he didn't seem too concerned about it. There's a bit from our chat in this story

 

I asked him what he's hearing from farmers these days, and he had one really interesting comment. Said he had a northern Iowa farmer call him the other day and say he already had corn leaves rolling during the middle of the day even though it was only about 80 degrees. Elwynn said he asked him how it looked in the morning, and he said it looked definitely worthy of the good or excellent category of USDA's math. So, it's clear that farmer is dealing with some weak, maybe stunted roots caused by the wet, cool spring in which the crop was planted.

 

So, here's kind of the point he was making: USDA's Crop Progress reports are based on field observations and tallies. So, if an enumerator goes out to check conditions in an area like this at, say, 7:00 in the morning, that crop would look to be in tip-top shape. But, if he goes to the same field at, say, 3:00 in the afternoon, he might find rolling leaves, pushing it down into the fair or maybe even poor category. 

 

So, considering the likelihood that these types of conditions may be widespread, does this mean the accuracy of the weekly crop progress reports may hinge entirely on the time of day when USDA's folks are out checking the crop? 

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5 Replies
alf1
Friend

Re: A USDA Crop Conditions wildcard -- from Elwynn Taylor

If I was checking, i would do it early in the morning if it's as muggy as it's been here the last few days. TN

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Honored Advisor

Re: A USDA Crop Conditions wildcard -- from Elwynn Taylor

I think those folks may be looking at the crops after dark........................Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Re: A USDA Crop Conditions wildcard -- from Elwynn Taylor

It only stands to reason that if you are going to evaluate the crops, you have to look where there is crops.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: A USDA Crop Conditions wildcard -- from Elwynn Taylor

Here in central Mo. the corn is in a lot of trouble. Some of our river bottom has only had 3/10ths in the last 4 wks. It still is 2 wks from pollination. If it does not rain by then that corn will be nothing. All fields everywhere are rolling bad and it is not even hot. The beans are just hanging on but tremendously short. Acres and acres of small beans
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Veteran Advisor

Re: A USDA Crop Conditions wildcard -- from Elwynn Taylor

in other words, this years USDA crop conditions mean little to nothing, unlike in majority of years...simply functioning to suck in more weaks - mis-informed.

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