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Frequent Contributor

A belated look at the WASDE Crop Poduction Numbers from this Morning

I figured I could post a portion of the Comments and data we had this morning for your discussion and belated information, sorry on the poor timing.

 

"Author KVT -From a portion of this afternoons- VTR"

USDA Report Coverage.jpg

 

USDA numbers are out, and the grain and soy markets are ALL lower across the board.... Below are a few of the highlights and the broader based numbers. 

 

CORN: Old-crop ending stock moved higher from the previous 759 million estimate to 769 million. Most in the trade were looking for the number to remain unchanged or a hair lower. Exports were lowered by 50 million, imports raised 25 million, ethanol raised 50 million. New-crop ending stocks lowered to 1.949 billion from the May estimate of 2.004 billion. USDA chooses NOT to lower US corn planted acres in this report. Shaves new-crop yield estimate another 1.5 bushels per acre.

Ethanol Production: USDA's previous estimate of 4.6 billion bushels raised to 4.65 billion. A jump of 50 million. New-crop ethanol production also bumped 50 million higher to 4.9 billion

 

  • Corn Imports: USDA opting to bump their corn estimate higher from the previous 125 million to 150 million.
  • Corn Exports: USDA continues to chase this number lower, moving estimate from the previous 750 million down to 700 million. 
  • Planted Acreage: Left unchanged at 97.3 million to. Trade was looking for a 1.5 million acre reduction. 
  • Yield: Lowered once again, first from 163 down to 158, now down to 156.5. Trade was looking for a 0.5 to 1 bushel cut. 
  • Total Production (new-crop): Previous USDA estimate of 14.140 billion bushels lowered down to 14.005 billion bushels.
  • Total Demand (new-crop): Lowered from 12.920 billion bushels down to 12.850 billion. Feed & Residual lowered from 5.325 billion down to 5.200; exports left unchanged at 1.3 billion; ethanol raised from 4.85 billion to 4.90.


South American Production: Brazils corn production taken from 76 million metric tons up to 77 million. Trades was looking for a bump of 2-3 million metric tons. Argentine production left "unchanged." The trade was looking for a reduction of 1 to 1.5 million.


SOYBEANS: Old-crop ending stocks left "unchanged" vs. the May estimate 125 million. Raised crush 25 million, lowered

 

exports 20 million and raised imports 5 million. New-crop also left "unchanged" vs. the previous estimate of 265 million.

  • Crush: Previous estimate of 1.635 billion raised to 1.660 billion.
  • Exports: Bumped slightly lower from 1.350 billion last month to 1.330 billion
  • Planted Acreage: The record May acreage estimate of 77.1 million left unchanged" 
  • Yield: Record yield of 44.5 bushels per acre left "unchanged" 
  • Total Production: Previous estimate of 3.390 left "unchanged" 
  • Total Demand (new-crop): Left "unchanged" from last months estimate of 3.264 billion. Chinese import estimate of 69MMT's left unchanged.


South American Production: Brazils' production lowered from 83.5 million metric tons to 82 million. Argentine production was left "unchanged" from last months 51 million metric ton estimate. Trade was looking for a 3-4 million metric ton drop in South American production, so a little disappointing.


WHEAT: Most in the trade were keeping a close eye on the USDA's "Winter Wheat" production number, thinking it would move lower from May's 1.486 billion estimate. To most the USDA surprisingly RAISED their wheat production estimates. Most surprising was the fact they raised their HRW estimate from 768 million to 781 million, basically 30 million higher than the trade was expecting.

 

If you want to check out his reports he gives it a way for free --(have to fill out some basic info)--for about a month, after that its up to you. Basically breaks the complex stuff down pretty good but he gets a little windy. -Full disclosure I work for Kevin Van Trump-

 

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