A different price prospective

[jrsiajdranch]

Ok the crops are  behind. 

I get that.

IS USDA dreaming when they say 114 billion of course but I still think 13 is in play. 

Are there lots of PP acres sure but it isn't all acres.

But maybe the reason the price ( at least on the board) is not responding is because the value of the crop is rising!

Since the majority of the crop was planted in the first couple weeks of June (talkin corn here) the dollar has really rallied.

So yea the corn price naturally dropped.

So yea the price is probably gonna keep dropping if the FED keeps tellin the world they are gonna take away the juice. 

Now big question is do they really do it?

That is the bet you need to be making not on the size of the crop.  Yea if we get down to an 11 bilion crop we may have a fundamental reason to go higher, however without a big scare 5 dollar DEC. may look real good. 

I really feel sorry for USDA some days. they get blamed for alot of things that they are not responsible for.

All the while helicopter Ben gets a free pass.

[Red Steele]

There are reasons for a stronger dollar. Spending has been cut, although it took sequestration, and Taxes have been raised, through "soaking the rich" via the new high income brackets, and restoring the FICA payroll tax cuts. So the US govt is a shade better financially and has less need for Helicopter Ben to print money.

And with Obamacare kicked down the road for large companies, and the 2014 elections not far away now, I sense people feel that maybe we are going to change course.

All in all, a pretty good time for optimism.

[jrsiajdranch]

Red I agree with your sentiment that the economy is at least doing better than those that are in the basket that creates the index which the dollar is compared to.  This is why the corn market is down or at least not at the lofty levels most on here want. 

There is really less inflation right now.

Is this gonna hold?

HECk NO!

[NDf]

The price of spot cash corn isn't down or soybeans either. The main reason new crop corn is cheaper is the trade is looking for a 14 billion new crop with a 2 billion bushel carryover if their right corn will be cheaper simple as that it won't matter where the dollar is.

[unlgrad]

JR,  I am giving you the high guess of crop production at 114 billion bushel.   You had better have a plan on what to do with the mountain of corn coming your way. L O L.   NExt thing we will be seeing is pigs flying around here.   Off to kill some more crop today.   Farming is not only fun, but a job also.  Smile.

[sw363535]

So,-------- are we approaching the criteria that turns the grain trade within the usa to a contract market?  Where every sale is negotiable? 

Where the relationship with an end user becomes more valuable than the CBT?

I am still looking for the senerio that pushes grain production down the same Corporate road as the animal went.  Maybe the "trade" will get ugly enough to make contracting look good.

[jrsiajdranch]

SW, I don't know if grain farming will consolidate like Livestock has. I have my doubts.

However My point is that right now while everyone is tryi8ng to figure out why the market isn;t responding to the poor crop out there they have totally missed the issue of currency value as it relates to commodities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-17/yen-holds-losses-on-bets-g-20-will-endorse-boj-stimulus.htm...

THe link is to a pretty good article on currency"stuff"

Here is the money quote to me.

“It will be the case that over the next two or three months we may continue to oscillate within ranges,” Stretch said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse” with Guy Johnson. “As we go towards the end of this quarter or beginning of next quarter, as we do get into better data or the prospect of a degree of tapering, that’s the time we’ll see the dollar gaining additional traction.”

IF this scenario does play out this fall will become known as the great corn robbery. Folks will sell into this market thinking that this thing is going way lower even tho they see a poor crop. these will be panic sales.

By Christmas when we have lack luster sales we will start to see cries for stimulus money again and QE games 2014 will be on.  Will it happen fast enough to effect prices for the grow it bin it store it crowd? Probably. May not get here in time for the crop insurance spring price.

All I am saying is do not get so lost in the crop you can not see the dollar.