A dry June makes a big corn crop

[hardnox]

as the old saying goes. Going to be true for somebody, just far from certain how many somebodys.

Deep roots scavenging up nutrients, little N loss, generally pretty good plant health, as far as I know (as per the 1995 analog I've discussed, I'm interested in what people are seeing.)

Looking at all the maps out 14 days, lightest overall coverage for a major growing area would seem C IA and NC IL although those soils hold a lot of water, on average, and not in serious soil moisture shortage yet. Absent high 90s will probably pollinate OK.

6-10 and 8-14 continue to show promise for those areas as well. Whether it materializes or not the market probably isn't going to like it on Mon nite.

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

What you are seeing is what I am seeing.  I'd take some rain if I could get it but the tiles are still running and the corn is shooting up, so one assumes the roots are in moisture.  Forecasts for temps in a reasonable range for pollination.  A few fields are pollinating here but not most yet - but soon.   Plant health looks good and bugs are not a problem.  It's not in the bin yet, but when it comes to marketing it would seem the pressure is on prices unless something comes up.

[hardnox]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1467642468

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FSoilmst_Monito...

7 Day will mop up most the remaining deficit areas if it comes through. A little early to make the call but that's what markets tend to do.  A trend or above corn crop is coming into sight*.

I'm sure there will be those on the short end and I sympathize, but we also had that, for various reasons, in the last two years. Right now I'd have to expect this year tops those.

So I guess that leaves Aug rainfall for the beans and whether the bean longs can hang on, maybe win the lottery.

The farthest I'd care to look out would be 16 days and the maps show the ridge still camping in the west.

http://www.qtweather.com/showImage.php?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.noaa.gov%2Fmap%2Fimages%2Fens%2Ft850...

I know the weather gurus have talked dry August all along but I'm of a mind to thank them for the rally and make more sales should we go higher.

BTW, be sure to send a bottle of the best to the weather forecast guys and analysts who gave you a shot at some pretty good prices on a record corn crop. They whiffed, but in your favor.

*guess wuold be a dry Aug. might pare it back to trend, a normal one breaks the record by a few bushels or more?

[hardnox]

3.46 continuous low falls, 318.25 next support.

Making it a bit worse, the Central Bank post Brexit sugar rush looks to be fading.