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Honored Advisor

A little more current on Corn, Brazil

Updated market analysis elaborated by Cepea, 
research center linked to Sao Paulo University (Brazil)

Gives you: 
Index is 51 BRL per bag; 2015/16 output might be lower 

Uncertainties Regarding the second corn crop development pushed up prices in the domestic market in the first fortnight of May. The ESALQ / BM & FBovespa Index average (Campinas region) in May, at 49.80 BRL (14.20 USD) per 60-kilo bag, is almost two fold superfamily que Observed in the same period last year. Official forecasts Indicate the 2015/16 output lower than last season's. On May 16, the ESALQ / BM & FBovespa Index (Campinas region) closed at 51.08 BRL (14.61 USD) per 60-kilo bag. 

Data released by the National Company for Food Supply (Conab) highlight how much the hot and dry weather in the last weeks damaged the second corn crops, Especially in the Central-West. The output of the 2015/16 second corn crop is now forecasted by Conab at 52.9 million tons, 3.1% lower than last season's and 7% lower than April estimates.Although the area of ​​the second corn crop is estimated at 10.16 million hectares, 6.4% up Compared to last season, the Brazilian average productivity is now forecasted at 5.2 tons per hectare, 9% lower than last season's. 

The 2015/16 summer corn output is forecasted at 27.05 million tons by Conab, 10.1% down Compared to last season. This scenario is linked to the area 10.6% smaller, since productivity was estimated at 0.6% higher.In all, the domestic output is forecasted at 79.95 million tons, 5.6% lower than last season's. 

In light of the high domestic Increase and loss of competitiveness in the international market, Conab has revised down Also the Brazilian corn exports. According to the Company, 28.4 million tons of corn might be shipped between Feb / 16 and Jan / 17, down 6% Compared to last season's exports. On the other hand, imports might reach 1.5 million tons in the same period. 

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