You may want to crunch some numbers......
Planting progress
Ground conditions
Crop conditions
Amount of replanted anticipated
The weather forecast
The calendar
and.......you might want to recheck those carryout numbers......those numbers could be shrinking. 
To remain bearish, I would advise you to search for corn fields where you can see rows of corn plants that are that nice green color.
The traders don't care what is real - they care about what they think will be there in the FUTURE.
Traders usually have to be proven wrong. With them, it's "show me".
This does mean that if you are right and they are wrong you are in a position to arbitrage the market and make money. Like working the carry, one has to sell it to capture it. I've been right and the trade wrong and had them roll over me, though. 
As someone said, they can be wrong longer than I can afford to be right. 
I agree Jim.........I was just trying a little persuasion.
