A mind blowing geopolitical possibility, well, probably likelihood

[sdholloway56]

Here we are, one month on from when the fall of Kiev within 72 hrs. was certain, according to virtually all "experts".

If you think things are scrambled now, just wait until the serial collapse of the Russian Federation commences.

That would be starting approximately now, although it just begins with a few pebbles shifting at the base of the slope. 

[erikjohnson61y]

Predictions are really hard, especially about the future, so I won't hold you to anything, but how do you see that unfolding? Despite the sanctions limiting their access to their $600B in reserves, they were able to make their last $117M debt payment and stave off default for at least another month.  Does a collapse necessarily mean *somebody* turns on Putin successfully?  The Oligarchs?? FSB?? The Military?? The people themselves??

I'm more curious if Lukashenko wants to bring all those sanctions down on his country too if he joins in the invasion. Already reports of sabotage in Belarus to make it difficult for the Belarussian army to move south.

[rickgthf]

The Ukrainians are in the process of breaking the siege of Kyiv now.  I doubt the Russians have the reserves to counterattack there.  Once Kyiv is secured that leaves the Ukrainians free to attack somewhere else, probably around Sumy-Kharkiv in the north and Kherson in the south. Meanwhile,  after firing more than 1,100 there is evidence the Russians are running out of ballistic missiles, so that threat will decline.  At some point, hopefully, it will turn into a rout.  It will take longer to "liberate" the Dombas regions but by now the Ukrainians are fully armed, experienced, mad as hell, and looking for revenge.

   When the full scale of Putin's defeat is finally realized in Russia and the effects of the sanctions really begin to bite, the Russian elites will understand that the only way forward is without Putin.  

[sdholloway56]

Although he'll probably have long since disposed of Navalny. 

BTW, 7 years ago when the first leader of the opposition- Nemtsov- was assassinated.

First, I don't think he'll be able to hold the two most important puppet regimes- Belarus and Kazakhstan- up. The shock troops he recently had to dispatch to prop each up have been dispatched (and I don't mean like deployed-dispatched- I mean decimated and deaded).

Same really applies in Russia- the huge internal repression mechanism is being seriously weakened at the same time that pain and unrest among the people will increase.