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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

A problem for USDA

going forward is my strongly held suspicion that the pre-election crop statistics were produced by interns borrowed from the Creative Writing Program at Trump U.

That's not the entirety of it- there always was the likelihood that China was going to need to buy a lot of stuff- which came to pass- and a financial theme with ultra-loose money, weakening dollar, etc.

But I'd say you'd only approach getting a handle on the statistical situation slowly, and with great caution.

Still, would matter over time.

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10 Replies
unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: A problem for USDA

How many did trump actually replace at USDA?  3 or 30 or 4,000. got a good guess?  Cause that is all you are doing.

timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

Another crazy conspiracy theory, if you look at the staff, there is no hole in experience, and there are no Trump buddies, mostly liberal university guys that are career folks. Good people that try their best, problem is they won't adapt to the changing world, and their process won't let them incorporate new technology in a timely way.

Besides, for your theory to have any merit at all, bean basis would 80 under NOT 30 to 50 over in the Eastern belt. Deliveries would be off the chart vs. the zero they are at. It is certainly cash driven panic with the Billions of bushels of long specs on top of the billions of bushels of spread traders forcing the commercials to cover on strength.

jmo

BUT, quite assuredly, sometime this summer, or maybe even March 31, we will start a series of about 13 bearish reports in a row. Not NASS's fault, rather the global producers like you and me who will ramp up production in a real hurry.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

Rising prices cause physical tightness (and scads of pre-election government cash)- there were obviously plenty of beans around at that point- just a question of how many there will be in the end.

But there have been past episodes of some "interesting" numbers ('99, '04) that were later backed out over the course of many quarters. And this was inarguably the most corrupt administration in modern history, so there is that as supporting evidence. No one with a shred of integrity or self respect lasted 3 years.

But from a farmer's point of view there is only one direction where USDA can be wrong.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

Another piece of supporting evidence is the incontrovertible fact that the number of those old rebranded Dixiecrats who aren't crooked as a dog's hind leg is so small as to be nearly excluded from consideration.

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

And to your point, if the data interpretation does in fact lean in one direction, adjustments can and will be made only slowly and incrementally. Not helpful but probably not a huge deal.

I think I recall you saying not so long ago something to the effect of "who cares? We'll have made bank by the time they figure it out anyway."

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

only an issue because the publishing lazy writers stroke the ego of usda employees by printing their required predictions generated for budget purposes...... ..... while congress destroys any idea of a "budget".  There is no budget in a congressional household.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

Budget outlays for the re-locate  to  """ 805  Pennsylvania Ave """  Kansas City Mo ,  Beacon  Area , will  net a  $avings  of  what ,  yet  to  be  seen  - ? 

Only  a  405  mile  drive  to  a  noted ,  current ,  unfortunate  Exceptional  Drought  Area  - - -

That may have changed this weekend  - wheat revival - ? 

USDA  Market  Report - Kansas Direct -  3-12  Cash Fats or  chubby's ,  $113 - $114 - year  ago $109 - $110  -  -  -

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: A problem for USDA

The entire original kerfuffel came about on account of a demand that ERS produce the opinion that the TCJA was going to provide huge benefits for fly over America.

The economists said, "how are we going to say that when it won't?"

And it didn't.

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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: A problem for USDA

Trump is out of office, you need to let it go.  TCJA was a success according to some economists, which will be nameless just like your economists were nameless.  Do you know what a narcissist is?  

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