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A real scary thought
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Re: A real scary thought
It is scary, because things around here looked really tough and late planting...and there is a drown out here and there, a hill nob that`s yellow from N leaching, but everything inbetween looks tremedous. I wouldn`t call this a "ideal year" by a long shot, outside of the beans could be a little bigger, it`s great. I really am afraid of a "perfect year" when and if it occurs and I don`t know if we could afford 2 back to back perfect years.
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Re: A real scary thought
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Re: A real scary thought
My recollection of history and the first year after low prices is that even more is planted trying to raise revenue. The old adage, if it is cheap, just need more.
Not until the third year is there movement away from overproduction. In the past it was gov't paying to idle acres.
I think this time it will take crop failures world wide again.
Politically speaking there is not awareness in this hemisphere of food shortages and famines. Besides food comes from the store.
With the turmoil in the mid east we may just need to burn our excessive crops as fuel. Europe may also need to too as heating fuel.
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Re: A real scary thought
what would be nice is ground beef a 2.50 to go with my 2.50 corn
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Re: A real scary thought
Saw 3yr old cows--P3 ----- bring 2500-2600 this week. The $2.50 ground beef may take longer than the $2.50 corn
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Re: A real scary thought
your right there but that is the problem
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Re: A real scary thought
childofthecorn,
Your thought brings my mind back to (what I think is) the most bullish issue in the corn market. And tells me the volatility is not over.
We are using 13.+ billion bushels of corn per year -------- a record production figure just a couple of guesses ago.
And the cattle numbers are at record lows........................
Hog numbers trimmed by disease..................
Ethanol running at a very strong pace and moving the ddg's
What does happen when the grass greens up????
Grain production does need to get the belt tightened and wise up to the cash flow issues. Find a way to make a profit at $3.50 corn. Send the salesmen home and repair the existing equipment. Stop spending on things that do not change the production numbers. (technology entertainment). Great tools but enourmously overpriced.
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Re: A real scary thought
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Re: A real scary thought
Shaggy, I can only give the example I observe. We have been paying for it for two years and have yet to apply it in a way that is measureable on the yield monitor ------------- measureable in a way that cannot be atributed to something else.
This year we are harvesting our first experiments with variable rate fertilizer through an air seeder by soil maping and by hired application.
The jury is still out, we will see at harvest. How well we keep records of the additional costs, and the fertilizer savings compared to a blanket broadcast application? What savings there was on fertilizer? And how well the harvest results can be connected to the variable application??
A lot depends on the original theory applied. Do you push the good soils and take lumps on the weaker soils or do you try to fix problems? for example....
And finally...... how many years do you have to run the test until your sure your fertilizer history is not affecting your test??
And of course is there enough variation in the field to be worth aditional expense of the testing?
We did get a couple of suprises on a field that showed more fertilizer in locations than others. But knowledge of the fields history would have told us the same, since portions had once been flood irrigated.
But the original idea for us was to use VRT on corn planting of circles and corners, a theory we might get back to, but ofter the variety needs to change as much as the population.
I am not sure how many years and acres it would take to prove VRT benefit over traditional population or volumes, but It will be enough that I would let KSU spend the dollars on research.
Ever notice it is d____ed expensive being the first on your block to have the new ideas??
And in ag, over the years, only 1 in 5 of those new ideas pan out for everyone. There are just too many differentials to consider.
I drove east out of Ulysses yesterday all the way to Dodge City. I bet there is 15 miles in there where the soil type and topography does not change much.