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Honored Advisor

A sign of the times

The local ethanol plant has raised their basis about 20 cents in the last four weeks.  13 cents of that in the last week.  I have been posting all spring about my lack of planting progress.  However, on Friday and Saturday I finally got into the fields and got about 30% of my corn in just on Saturday.........on June 8th.   Of course according to the ground conditions, this was 2-3 days too soon. We received light rain yesterday and this morning some steady, moderate rain is falling.  This looks to be the end of corn planting for this year.  

I talked with the guys at the ethanol plant and they said many guys are not moving their old corn now and will be using it to fill their fall contracts because they didn't get enough acres planted. A few guys have bought their way out of their contracts as well, or moved them on down the road for 2020. 

These current grain markets are going to need to start rationing demand pretty soon.   They can't expect all the local basis levels to do all the heavy lifting.  

This is like watching a train wreck......in slow motion.

It will take a couple of years for many in all of agriculture to bounce back.....and I'm afraid some never will.

3 Replies
Veteran Contributor

Re: A sign of the times

Could not agree with you more. This will have a long tail

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Senior Contributor

Re: A sign of the times

Our local coop sells a lot of feed all over most of SW MN and are already worried about corn for next year. Could be the first time in my 47 year career that I see them rail corn in instead of out.

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Honored Advisor

Re: A sign of the times

I was over to Winnebago Minnesota, things look tough there.  Just got back from Boone Iowa and I`m wondering "what happened to this garden spot???"  I see beans replanted, beans just cracking the ground and a lot of "John Deere corn"  or "Minneapolis-Moline corn" yellow and stunted.  USDA dropped yield 10 bushels...no way! That isn`t even a good start on the haircut that this crop has taken.   If you are a user of corn, take advantage of these prices while it`s still cheap.  

 

I just wonder what`s going to happen to a lot of us farmers, the yields aren`t going to be there this fall and many of us were counting on a hail Mary pass this year...maybe we`ll get the "hail" without the Mary  Smiley Happy

 

It`s gonna be a lean year next year and I`ve been saying that 3 years now, but we keep burning equity for "just one more year".  If corn gets "high" and South American corn is imported and E-plants shut down, perhaps we`ll be right back at 2 billion bushel carryover, even with 3 billion less production .  One step forward, one step back

 

onestep

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