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Frequent Contributor

A strange thing happened on the way to market.

Back in March farmers planed to plant 91 million acres of corn.  The price of corn dropped on that news.

Then April rolled around and farmers spent the first part catching up on tillage work form last fall.  April 25th the rain started and it rained for 40 days and 40 nights. The end of may was within sight and over 1/2 of the corn was still in the bag. The talk was prevented plant and corn acreage switching to beans. Corn price recovered some and the bean price went in the tank.

MFP came out that if you didn't plant no payment.  But it didn't make any difference what you planted as long as it was a covered crop. 

June saw planters all across the corn belt running day and night. Huge prevented plant numbers started to crop up and the markets rebounded.

The July crop report came out that all 91 million acres of corn had been planted.  SAY WHAT????  How can that be with all the prevented plant acres.  No problem we'll resurvey for the August crop report.

August comes and all the above was fake news. The farmers back in March must have intended to plant 97 million acres of corn only 10 million more than the 5 year average.  Corn acres did not get switched to beans.  When the bean market tanked in May because the word was that late planted corn acres were being switched to beans the farmers then switched bean acres to corn. Late planted or not.

 So the end result as it stands today is planted corn acres are only 500,000 less than last year and I see one USDA publication still showing 2019 corn production at 15 billion bushels not the 13 something. The big difference is that of the 15 million acres of corn and soybean prevented plant acres.  14 million of them came off the soybean acres.

That means the latest fake news is that soybean acreage is down almost 20% and we should see a rally in the bean market. This should hold true until the next set of alternative facts come out. 

I love alternative facts don't you.

 

 

2 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: A strange thing happened on the way to market.

With the news of that large of a drop in bean acres, the soybean market should've been up the limit.  It's past time for endusers to pay up...........this includes China.

Veteran Contributor

Re: China's buying all the beans they need from Brazil, why should they care?

Hasn't it been reported that China's demand for beans will be down to 82 MMT from 92 MMT last year? 

And then there's this: https://www.agriculture.com/markets/your-world-in-agriculture/ukraine-to-fill-chinas-corn-needs-repl...

  Just like in the 1980's, if you don't supply your market, somebody else will.

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