A strong downward pressure soon? Here is why

[luisvieira]

Hello boys,

Some might not have noticed, but I have posted these days some news that would impact strongly the grain markets still during this year and on early 2016. Argentina is living a run-off of a election right and both contenders have promised to end with the grain exports taxes and the limits on exports/imports. The current scenario is that the country is in dire need of foreign reserves and the contender appear to have a pragmatic relantionship with farmers - not confrontational as current president Cristina Kirchner?

So Why am I saying that there is a strong downward pressure? Because there are at least 20 million metric tons of soybeans, four million tons of corn and four million tons of wheat stored to be released in the market by December or January. This need for foreign reserves of the government would force it to make the life of farmers easier. Opposition leader Maurício Macri, apparently now the front-runner, has promised to do all these changes, including devaluing the currency, through a shock, so in case he wins that would happen by the first weeks of December, when the new admnistration takes office. In the case that Daniel Scioli wins, those changes would be a lot slower and those export taxes would be just reduced.

What do you think? The analysts that told me those things are right or wrong?

[giolucas]

How much more can we go down in Soybeans a dollar, two dollars?  Over the years we have seen cheaper prices from South America but we have also seen unstable governments, farmer unrest and infrastructure problems.   Of course it is a simple ECON problem when more supply comes into the market.  Prices come down.  The question is how much?  Hasn't the market taken into account this piece of news?

[glenlivet18]

I agree that if this information is already known (and I expect the big players would know about it) then it's priced into the market.  And if the market doesn't go much lower that's a bullish sign.  FWIW today we hit a six-week low in soybeans. 

[roarintiger1]

The bearish news just keeps coming.   The reporting of bearish news on all of these websites is astounding.   It's a wonder that we don't have to PAY someone to take our crops.

And yet.......I heard on the radio today that because of the bad summer weather, food prices are rising sharply........

Only a matter of time until someone blames ethanol for their higher grocery bill. 

[luisvieira]

These stocks are already prices, that is true. But I ask you... Who knows when and how fast this is going to to be sold?