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kraft-t
Senior Advisor

Re: It reinforces the notion

That the cash market between buyer and sellers of physical product is the 'real" market.

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: A super bullish crop report

When you are a superbull prices are never high enough.  They are always going higher.

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DismalScience
Veteran Contributor

Re: A super bullish crop report

buck,

 

That reminds of the joke about the two bulls.  One was a young super bull and one was an old krafty bull.  Anyway they were discussing the herd of cows standing over wonder and the super bull says let run over there and .......   the krafty bull says no lets just walk over there and ........       

 

I will let you fill in the blanks since I am sure you have heard it before and this is a family board.

 

PS thought the .......  were a nice touch

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: A super bullish crop report

LoL

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: A super bullish crop report

"if they want to cash out today......"  But isn't that the crux of it all?  Apparently the positive basis was needed to pull corn. If some have locked in a basis it looks like the right move today AND the futures and cash are more in agreement. It would seem to me that the positive basis was reflection some idea of future risk due to the issues of dryness and ending stocks - if nothing else. 

 

The real question is if those who have locked in basis want to stay in the game a while longer. It would seem reasonable that those who stay in are influenced to do so if dryness and heat seem to progressively eat into the probable yields of corn. Every seller's goals seem to be satisfied, though a few more than others. Either way, those who still have corn to sell, or those who had to grit their teeth to wait for remarkable basis spread, were rewarded for their patience. All seem to be on the incline up - for now. If significant irreversible damage to the crop is being done - or to the degree it is - it tends to set some sort of floor behind the price.

 

Here, now, is the best part of the marketing game IMO. Not only do choices have to be made, but the best ones will incorporate how continuing or changinging trends are likely to impact those choices in the near to middling future. It doesn't get any better than this.