You aren't missing anything.
As of 6/24, friday's close, Specs were long 118,000 more cars (590 mil bu) (Total OI 589,000 versus 471,000) more beans than at the time you are referring to last year. As this spec froth gets removed, there is certainly a downside in beans that could be similar to wheat. Of course, we can all pray for another weather event to delay the reality a little longer. :-)
Probably lots of selling corn or wheat and buying bean spreading over the last few weeks fwiw.
A year ago crude was at $75 and bean oil around .36.
Oil has held the crush up. On a day to day basis, soys follow crude closer than corn does.
My own opinion is that the Obama administration will try to first break the oil market before they can do whatever stimulative action they plan before the election- which you can count on regardless of which tribe is in charge or which you belong to.
If they announced a QE 3 tomorrow I can guarantee that crude would be at $125 within a month and we've already seen how that works out. In 2007 oil stopped the ramp job and when the recession hit it lit the fuse on the financial dynamite.
Gotta mop the floor with the crude longs and if they gotta, they will, barring a geopolitical surprise.
Recall the Bush trick where 6 weeks before the election Goldman suddenly rejiggered the GSCI to sharply reduce unleaded weigting and gas prices collapsed for 8 weeks. Which did nothing for the REpublicans in that election but you can't keep them from trying. (BTW, I've wondered what the quid pro quo for GS was on that one).
These guys may be evil but you can't say they aren't clever.
I'm a firm believer "they'll" hold these bean prices up a bit longer to get those last few acres planted, wherever. You know darn well that these last acres are gonna go to short-season beans, just to get something. I don't do the PP thing so maybe that throws my theroy out the window. Isn't yesterday's report based on June 1st anyway? If so, sure, I can go with what the USDA claims.
A bit of wheat cuttting north of Indianapolis so the double crop is probably mostly a done deal at this point. Little of that north of there unless the wheat comes off very early.
A few drills running on Wednesday in EC IN W OH- some replants in ponds but also some first timers.
On the matter of if they gotta break the oil market they likely will- like the GSCI example given, part of how you do it is with the complicity and insider info with some of da boyz.
If you are to let Morgan Stanley (the biggest crude player) know in advance that you are really interested in this happening, you've got their backs and give them a lead time to get their positions squared, viola' it shall come to pass.