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Honored Advisor

Acreage Breakdown

Have any of you actually studied the report, looked at the state by state numbers? NASS didn't have much choice but to print the real number, unfortunately I guess for some.

 

There is some wisdom in there, but it does require reading about 18 pages of tables.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

That there is about million less acres of corn planted in the corn belt this year vs last year.did you do a comparison to this years intentions vs the June report, even more enlightening. Also overall the principal crop acres is lower then last year. How about this little tidbit that seems to be a sidenote from the usda and hasnt been mentioned much here or elsewhere for that matter, that they are going to resurvey in 14 states due to crops weren't planted at the time of the survey for this report, the real numbers. 2011 they came out with a number higher then intentions in the June report, funny how it was above what most thought it should be at that time, later it was revised down after the "resurvey" but to little fanfare as it were. I think mostly that was due to overall crop size was shrinking and planted acres meant little at that point.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Oh right, time!  They had no choice but slightly, slightly, shave lower the 3 "I" states because they couldn't raise those acreages. 

 

Put a whole bunch of extra acres in non-traditional areas.

 

Go back to your "bear cave", do some more studying, how to justify B.S.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Hows that extra corn in Nevada and Arizona looking right now!?!?!?

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

LOL on the big Arizona crop...No wonder they found a bunch of new corn acres, Oranges are out corn is in.....Arizona is now the New Iowa and non planted Iowa acres are all in Arizona, why did I notice that one......and deserts are bad for the eviroment, cause global warming don't ya' know. So they tore and the deserts too.......USDA now makes perfect sense....JP

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Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Time , I guess its all how one interprets. I love one of your last quotes. Time is working, however not like I expected. So what good was your forecasting based on time then.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Yes, the point was simply that the DEEP SOUTH planted 1.5 mil more acres of corn and over half a million more beans. So, the market worked as it usually does. This also means that we can loose 2 mil acres in IA and it is not important enough to matter.

 

The last complication is that ALL that deep south corn is harvested in August/early Sept. Gives us another 150 mil bushels at least to get to new crop further north. And of course, there is NO way to know how NASS will count it in future reports.

 

So, anyone complaining about the number didn't read the report and their commentary. We all know that the IA number is high on corn, and they admit by planning to resurvey that the IA number is high, and maybe 2 mil acres is lost, BUT unfortunately we also know that 2 mil was gained down south.

 

Sure wish I would have thought to consider that the cotton boys didn't plant cotton. CX1 surely kept that quiet. He is probably big short. The basis made it an easy decision for them I guess, like it always does after a drought.

 

Well, high today of 78, not bad weather to grow a cool season grass... corn.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Remember last year. That southern corn is 2012 corn if it is harvested before September. Smiley Happy
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Tip.......So I am not following you for sure. You are not clear. One point you say the south will make up the loss in Iowa and then you go on to say they were wrong on Iowa by 2 million acres and already show 1.5 million more in the south. So if the counted the south acres this time and they screwed up Iowa, then they are off by 2.5 million acres......so if I follow you right, they still dumb-a$$ just like said to start with and you agree. Just your example the are 2.5 million acres to high and should have reported 94.9 million istead of 97.4.....JP

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

John, I would not count on more than 500-750,000 corn acreage loss in Iowa

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