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Senior Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

The truth is, is that no one will ever know. We never know with any degree of accuracy how many acres we have planted each and every year. Makes no difference what crop we're talking of.

What does make a difference is the USDA's numbers that everyone wants to hear, both producers and end users. Once again, these numbers might not hold any degree of accuracy, but it's what the public is expecting and wanting to hear, so therefore we accept this.

Accuracy can be compared to beauty, it's all in the eyes of the beholder.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

John...a couple of things. The first is that I think Ray is way to conservative at saying 500k in IA but he is the EXPERT and he has insider data, so if I think he is wrong I AM AN IDIOT and should not risk money on my belief. The important point though is that the 2 mil acres we added in the south will never go away this year. It is added and will not go away, so if we even take 2 mil off the IA number it DOESN'T MATTER. This was the surprise in the data for me and frankly it was a stupid error on my part to forget about the DEEP SOUTH in years after a midwest drought.

 

So, I will take 2 mil acres off the planted for IA/MN/IL. In doing so, there is nothing bullish in the numbers in terms of acreage. The big negative though is in BASIS for September. Plus these added acres of corn gets harvested and used in August and the carryin is not really 690mil  it is 1.5 Bil. So, I was just correcting my initial "this is a BS report". If you study the line by line it is hard to argue with the facts, EXCEPT that we can all take 2 mil acres out of IA. IF Ray is right, with crop conditions as they are now, and a warm wet forecast for all these southern acres, it is going to be very tough to take the yield per acre number down as well.

 

Maybe more importantly, any acres you take out of corn in IA will need to be added to the bean number, so not much help for the beans either. I hear lots of guys took PP corn and then planted uninsured beans.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

I don't think you get to take PP corn and then plant beans.

 

that only works AFTER failed corn.

Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Time, you're deep south numbers on a "normal" year might work.  Thie year - not so much.  I was in Oklahoma City until the 2nd week in April this year (see earlier posts of mine)  Oklahoma was not yeat planted - not a wheel had yet turned.  The previous yeat (2012) they poanted around March 1.  THAT corn was available in Sept.  And then there is the little memeory problem that you have of the frosts and freezes this spring that went down to cenral Texas and tosted a lot of 6 lleaf corn.  Not available.  Then there is the amount of rain Texas has received.  Not much.  Maybe some cron in the DEEP SOUTH LA delta area, probably some from Florica, but beyond that - there's not much pipeline corn this year available in Aug OR probably Sept from the deep south.  They are like the rest of us, a month behind.  For the rest of the corn growing areas, you had better hope that the rain doesn't stop, all those mudded in acres are in real trouble if it does.  And those of us in the North need at least a warm and frost free October to prevent the 40 -40 - 40 corn, if not worse.  This final chapter is a long way from being written.  Plenty of suspense for all involved.  These corn prices are a gift right now.  Looking at the POTENTIAL of where this market could go (higher OR lower), my bet is on the higher.  Lower, with a good crop, we could see 4.50.  With a disaster, $8.00.  Want to bet that last .50 cents?

 

Jen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Oh, and one more thing, let's look at the heat factor in the deep south and how that will affect the corn production.  (which is why they typically don't grow corn in the deep south with 90's + the buld of the summer).  Comparing Iowa ground with 2 million acres lost to Deep South ground is NOT a 1 for 1 trade off.  More like 2 to 1.  This is NOT a normal year.  You would think that someone with TIME in thier handle would have a better grip  on the fact that this is NOT a normal year, time is moving on, and we have a long, long way to go.  Stop trying to sell us on this DEEP SOUTH bs, or at least get your #'s right.

 

Jen

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Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

You are correct Hobby, the PP got crossed with "failed" corn acres. But aren't there a lot of "Failed" acres in IA/MN according to Jenny etal.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Oh - and just one more thing - again you're information is not just flawed but out and out WRONG on the pp acres.  Hobby is right.  PP acres are just that.  You can plant a cover crop, but putting into beans and harvesting - no can do.  In Wisconsin, we had numerous farms that were planning (note - planning) on putting in corn.  Let's say the previous crop was hay.  If that hay is taken off on the acres that were pp corn, there is no payment for the pp acres.  YOU CANNOT DOUBLE CROP PP ACRES!!!

 

Jen

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

A lot af acres here in MN and WI aren't failed.  There is something green (or still yellow as the case may be) that will produce something.  Just not a real good corn crop.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Jenny -Jenny , Jenny -- I since your blood pressure going up here ?  I have a good friend that lives in NE LA - -- LA345 - Hobby has net Kevin to , I talked to him last week -  there corn is as good as last year = + 200 bpa - people on here shpuld drop down to the crop section some time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! you all talk about markets and how chitty crops are - when allyou need to do is have a look see here !!!!!!! Down in crops - Shaggy has posted picutures of his half stand corn all year -  Looks Great-- if he keeps getting rain -- I have posted pics. along with Tarheel = NC and LongCreekFarms = VA. - boy if the South sucks - i have to wonder what good would look like .

 

As far as pipeline - there will be plenty to go - I know FOR fact - From one of my budies that was in on this deal - that one end user has   S.A. corn to come into the gulf for Aug. then add  the southern corn and let's don't forget all the srw  wheat comeing in the eastern part -- should have said being cut here - that will find it's way to feed .

 

As far as MN Ws andiow - they are just fringe acres to begin with  Smiley Wink

 

All I can say jenny is that you better get them feet ready for the fire !  lol

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Senior Contributor

Corn Belt vs fringe acres

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