cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Tip.....I am not bullish at all......I am pretty well sold for the next two years. I am just PO'd at the USDA, being so far behind technology and reality.....JP

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

ECIN - again with that boatload of corn from SA. Let's look at the flip side of that. Oh look - we are so short of corn we HAVE to import corn from SA. The basis on corn in Central Wisconsin is usually a buck under the board. So let's see - basis on SA corn to get to Central WI fringe area - priceless! That should make my remaining corn I have worth - what? - $3.00 over the board come Sept. And I'm sure with all that transporting and moving the quality is going to be astounding. And, yes, LAST YEAR LA had RECORD crops. (Note the word RECORD) They could repeat it. But here in lies the problem. You guys spouting the 14 (or is it now 15?) bbl take only the best of what you can find from where ever you can find it (Like the LA corn from LAST year), and add it to THIS years supply. Last year was last year and this year is this year. For anyone to be spouting about a 14 or even 15 bbl crop coming at this point is simply irresponsible. Not taking into account what is happening weather wise ( other than "perfect" growing conditions) and not taking into any account the calendar is not only again irresponsible but foolish.
0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Time, etal: the other little truth is that there are very few "failed acres" at this time.

 

Yes there are millions of acres with a very poor stand of corn BUT most of it will appraise out at at least half a crop right now. That is way too big a hit to take in crop insurance to try the last week of June in the northern areas to try to make that up with a too late a planted bean crop.

 

That would get deducted from the payout.

Any green or yellow corn plant REGARDLESS of it's health as long as it is alive counts as viable corn producing plant. Just as good as the best you have this year. There is NO real choice but to make a X on the calendar and hope for better next year.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Dam it Jenny -- I am now taking a DEEP breath here !

 

But here in lies the problem. You guys spouting the 14 (or is it now 15?) bbl take only the best of what you can find from where ever you can find it

 

Now  that is Total BS !   I'm not TRYING to look at only for the good crops- I was just say'n -that THERE is some dang good stuff out there !!!!!!!!!! Even the East German Judge would give KY and TN a 10 -- Oh i know they don't have that many acres - but you put enought of these together and it adds up .

 

As far as them shipping you Northerns corn -- wake up gal ! It is cheaper for the southern guys to inport --even if we had enought corn here !!  I posted up - about 2 months ago - it would take 1.10 in freight Plus 30 over may to get ccrn from IN to SC or GA . Thats the problem -- it's the frieght . Then what your missing is not S.A. but canada corn coming into YOUR area - read 89's and the others post on there crops -- sounds pretty good .

 

Everybody only wants to take the bad chit here - Oh look at the calender - yes it's getting late BUT chit fire you have it SNOWING in 3 weeks -- The point is we DON"T know what will happen - even my cropscould go south -- very quick  !

 

Really - I'm   geting pretty bored reading the same dumb chit every day - it will be what it will be -- Hope you get your good price for corn --- I'm  just  not   beting on me ,   getting it here .

 

Have a good one

 

One other think it don't take 14 or 15 million to screw thing uo here . maybe only 12 or maybe a little less .

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

ROFL - ECIN - you did get me to laugh - thanks!  No, all the crops aren't bad.  There are some (some) good looking crops between here and Yellowstone.  But some good crops does not make a 150 - 170 bu yeild across the US.  To make that kind of yield, you need good, consistant crops most everywhere.  And that's what the USDA is saying, and those of us on the other side of the fence are crying foul because of that one word.  Consistant.  Which the crops are not.  Not across the US, not within a LOT of fields which is required for the total yields that the board is trading right now.  We do not have a 15, 14 13, or even 12 bbl crop from where I stand right now, given the bulk of the years weather we still need to go through.  What's wrong with trading a 12 bbl crop, and then, as the weater improves or becomes less threatening, to increase it.  I stick with what I say.  To be trading anything more than a 12 bbl crop right now is irresponsible and foolish.

 

Jen

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Irresponsible, foolish, dumb, mis-informed...yep that is me. Thanks for the reminder.

 

BTW....My number on yield is just as a much a guess as anyone else's, INCLUDING YOURS.

 

But anyway,  I deduct 2 mil from corn acres for what the resurvey will do to IA/MN/WS acres. Thus

we planted 95 mil acres, harvest 91.5%, or 87 mil acres @ 155 MINIMUM = a 13.5 BIL bu corn crop.

Definitely enough to avoid starvation. grin   Note I am TAKING 3 times Ray's reduction in the  acreage number,

and he is a commercial with their own private eyes in the sky. If you use Ray's number, and I happen

to respect him greatly, you end up with 96.5 mil 91.5%  x 155 = 13.7 bil

 

If you use a 163 yield, which is still possible in my foolish view, it is even more.

 

You can argue yield all you want, but no one knows and you folks out west would be well advised

to consider the entire situation which we "Foolish" souls post here for balance.

 

My experience has been that fighting the facts is not a good way to achieve profit objectives.

Maybe the better way to look at it is this way, yield MUST FALL to below 138 to get back to 12 Bil.

That will be very difficult to do.

 

So, back to the beginning...

Irresponsible, foolish, dumb, mis-informed...yep that is me. Thanks for the reminder

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

Im just saying what I have personally observed.  I haven't been down every road in the US.  I haven't been east of the Mississippi other than Wi - which of course doesn't count anyway.  I know what I've seen.  I know the crops are way behind where they usually are in the states of OK, TX, MO, IA, WI, MN, and ND.  I listen to the reports of other places that I deem reliable.  IN - good overall, some excellant.  Ill, some problems exist.  South fringe states is a toss up due to the heat to come and when they pollinate.  NE, KS dry but under the pivots probably OK, the they are dry right now, and last year the pivots didn't keep up.  Probably won't this year.  Montana had the best looking corn I saw on my trip out west.  Now, lokking at those state area with problems, vs looking at the states that are good.  You tell me.  Can  SE WI, parts of Ill, and Indiana make up for the rest outlined above.  I know what a good crop is and should look like by now.  And if you don't see a good crop by now - guess what - you probably don't have a good crop.  Period.  I don't bet against the American Farmer.  But mother nature has the upper hand, and there is not enough protection weather wise built into this crop right now.  For whatever reason.  Be it a cheap food policy, trying to save on insurance payouts, the funds have other places to put thier money, too much crop in farmers hands, whatever.  The market wants to work lower - that's OK too.  The cure for low prices is low prices.  Like others have said, it's time to lock the bins, stop the crop sales off the farm, and plan to store until we see what we really have.  When we see as farmers what we have, then maybe we can sell.  I for one am tired of the bs that comes out every year, better sell now, we're going much, much lower.  OK Time - we're going lower.  You tell me - how much.  That way I know when I should buy this market agressively.

 

Jen 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Acreage Breakdown

NO WAY IS THERE A 155 average USA yield out there. period

 

 

Are you smoking your socks?

0 Kudos